Maryland continues to outlaw election betting in the state, but you wouldn’t know it by the volume prediction markets are getting on their political event contracts.
The state presently restricts certain types of sports wagers, such as college player prop bets, while state employees are forbidden from participating in election betting. Big players like Kalshi and Polymarket are still free to roam the state, however, with both still accepting trades in Maryland as the November 3rd Midterms roll in.
Kalshi & Polymarket Enjoy Strong Maryland Election Activity
Prediction markets have generated plenty of buzz in Maryland, with traders targeting several markets, including congressional races, the governor’s race, and other political event contracts.
Figures reported on November 1st show that Polymarket had roughly $599,500 in trading volume on 20 different election markets in Maryland. The 1st Congressional District drew serious interest, with almost $99,000 in trading volume.
In addition, Kalshi had an estimated 400,500 contracts traded with a reported 27 different Maryland election events in play. While those figures aren’t necessarily comparable, they are a reflection on a busy Maryland election betting scene, despite the state not technically allowing it.
Maryland Election Betting Ban Facing Stiff Test
Wagering on Maryland elections is technically prohibited, with violations potentially resulting in misdemeanors and fines up to $500. That existing election betting ban has prompted State Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis to question whether or not prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are violating state law.
DeMarinis may have a point when speaking literally, but there remains a clear distinction between traditional election betting, and how prediction markets operate. Per the CFTC and any prediction market site you ask, they offer event contracts that are federally regulated, which instantly distinguishes them from normal wagers.
This may not keep Maryland’s objections at bay long-term, of course. It does raise a fair question, though, concerning whether Maryland state gambling restrictions should be able to trump financial contracts overseen by the CFTC.
Election Markets Offer More Than Standard Betting
State law aside, there’s no denying that prediction market political contracts are more diverse than standard sports betting wagers. This exact marker quickly helps separate sportsbooks from prediction markets, while also doubling down on probability, user market setting, and use case beyond profit.
The only real similarity between election contracts and sports wagers is that you’re risking money to be on the right side of a potential outcome. However, prediction markets bake real-time probability, user-controlled markets, and raw data that gives users informed stakes, rather than just random bets.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The gap of understanding between Maryland’s election betting ban and prediction markets operating in the state probably needs to be closed at some point.
Maryland certainly will fight to define prediction markets in their own vision, and they are one U.S. state that wants to do much more than just control the narrative. This is a fantastic reminder of why prediction markets continue to fight for all platforms to live under the CFTC-governed umbrella.
These types of legal issues will need to be broached eventually, but prediction markets thriving in Maryland is at the very worst a representation of a product the people want.
Long-term, the goal has to be to open the door to establishing clear rules while also maintaining access to innovative financial markets that can be used for more than just monetary gains. It isn’t something the state of Maryland is agreeing to at the moment, but the momentum enjoyed from prediction markets in a state that is trying to outlaw them has to be seen as a net positive.