As the NFL season hits its halfway mark, users of prediction markets have traded nearly $300 million in contracts forecasting the winner of the Super Bowl.
Industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket reported a combined $292.2 million in notional trading volume in their 2027 NFL champion markets. And while sportsbooks are backing the Buffalo Bills as the favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Feb. 2027, prediction traders believe a different team is in pole position.
Prediction markets set Super Bowl stage
The 2026 NFL season just wrapped up its first eight weeks of competition. The Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings all tied for the best record at 6-1. The Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears were just off the pace at 6-2.
America’s leader in sports betting, FanDuel, has the Bills as +550 favorites to win the upcoming championship. Those odds translate to a 15.4% implied chance, keeping in mind that sportsbooks use a vig that inflates odds to uphold the mantra that “the house always wins.”
Prediction markets, which don’t use vigs and are based on real-time market sentiment, don’t see the league’s hierarchy in the same light.
Kalshi and Polymarket users both believe that the 49ers have the best chance of winning the 2027 Super Bowl, priced at 15% and 14%, respectively. Both trading hubs also have the Bills in second at 14% and 13%.
Sportsbooks and prediction markets agree on who is in the top three for position to win the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears round out the group with a 13% likelihood at Kalshi and 12% mark at Polymarket, both of which are ahead of the implied probability of their +750 odds (11.8% chance) at FanDuel.
The Bears are in vogue at prediction hubs after trading for first-team All-Pro Jeffrey Simmons and defeating the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Kalshi traders only gave them a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl one week ago, and Polymarket users had them at 6%.
NFL produces huge totals
While prediction markets favor a strong top three in their Super Bowl options, there is a congested chase pack.
At Kalshi, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs are level at 8%. The preseason favorites Los Angeles Rams sit at 7%, and the Cincinnati Bengals are at 6%. The Broncos, Seahawks and Lions are all at 5%.
Polymarket’s users differ in that they believe the Chiefs (9%) are the outright fourth-place contender, while the Jaguars and Rams are knotted at 7%. They also have the Seahawks (6%), Bengals (5%), Broncos (4%) and Lions (4%) in contention.
Prediction markets have excelled during the NFL season thus far. Polymarket generated $3.3 billion from sports event contracts during the 30-day period that ended on Tuesday, representing 61.5% of the platform’s total trading volume during that time.
On a broader scale, Kalshi generated a whopping $97.5 billion in trades during the most recent 30-day period. While that was influenced by the midterm elections, Kalshi users still had significant interest in sports event contracts. That was evidenced by the platform’s all-time daily record of $5.1 billion being produced on Saturday, Oct. 24, a day when college football was on television and the NFL was 24 hours away.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
From a football perspective, the San Francisco 49ers are a more complete team than the Buffalo Bills are. But from a general trading perspective, the attention being paid to Super Bowl prediction markets, and the difference in prices compared to sportsbooks, is a direct reflection of how prediction operators utilize customer sentiment more than in-house models. The eventual outcome of the playoffs will be an intriguing test of how accurate mass consciousness can be.