The USA’s path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final final looks much more harrowing than it did just a couple of days ago, and prediction markets are feeling the effects.
According to market data from the leading operator, Kalshi, the USA has a 46% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and matching its best World Cup finish since 1930. That’s much lower than the 57% chance it had a week ago.
Why are prediction markets moving?
The USA — one of three North American host nations — sent a message to the rest of the competition when it throttled Panama, 4-1, and then beat Australia, 2-0. They won their group with a game to spare and had about as easy a path through the Knockout as possible.
A 3-2 loss to Türkiye on Friday was inconsequential to the bracket and the group standings, but it was still a disappointing performance. Mauricio Pochettino’s heavily rotated squad conceded the second-most goals of his tenure after its opponent had failed to score in each of its first two World Cup matches.
Kaan Ayhan dealt the final blow by finding the back of the net eight minutes into stoppage time in the second half, gutting the emotional energy the Stars and Stripes had accrued during their first two matches.
With a date against Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32 approaching on Wednesday, the USA will be tasked with showing a championship mentality and recapturing the belief with which it played to begin the tournament.
How far will the USA go?
Although the USA’s chances of reaching the quarterfinals have fallen, they are still the eighth-best of all remaining teams, per Kalshi. They also have an 82% chance of advancing to the Round of 16, a 19% chance of reaching the semifinals, an 8% chance of making the World Cup Final, and a 3.6% chance of winning the competition.
Looking at it from a different perspective, the USA’s most likely stage of elimination is thought to be in the Round of 16. Kalshi traders believe there’s a 37% chance they’ll lose in this round to the winner of Belgium and Senegal, assuming they get past Bosnia-Herzegovina.
While this is the highest figure of all relevant prediction markets, it is also 10% lower than it was as recently as Sunday morning.
The next most likely outcome is for the U.S. to lose in the quarterfinals (33%). That would tie their showing in 2002 for the best since they finished third at the first-ever World Cup.
A loss in the Round of 32 (14%), is next in order of likelihood, although it is separated by a great distance. Losing in the semifinals (11%) and the final (3%) are the remaining losing outcomes.
A difficult schedule awaits
The USA’s deflating showing against Türkiye wasn’t the only reason for the recent changes in prediction market probabilities. The USA’s confirmed path through the bracket looks much more difficult than it was expected.
If the Red, White, and Blue manage to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina and the winner of Belgium-Senegal, they will likely run into the pre-tournament favorite and defending European champion, Spain. Alternatively, they could face Portugal if they manage to pull off an upset in the Round of 16, assuming both teams win their Round of 32 match.
Kalshi users still believe there’s a 10% chance, the third-highest mark, that Spain wins the competition. Portugal is fifth at 6.2%.
If the U.S. can progress out of the quarterfinal round, it would be liable to play France, the Netherlands, Germany, or Morocco. France is the obvious standout there, as the current World Cup prediction markets’ favorite (24%) to win the tournament.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The USA’s biggest challenge will be overcoming the drop in momentum it suffered against Türkiye. This collection of players isn’t known for mental resilience, but Pochettino also has experience in major competitions and has them playing well. This author believes that they have a solid chance of reaching the quarterfinals, but only have a minuscule chance of beating Spain.