The NFL wants stricter regulations for prediction markets ahead of its 2026 season, which will begin in September.
A letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael S. Selig obtained by The Closing Line detailed the league’s hopes for a most robust framework for prediction markets. It did not ask the CFTC to shut down sports event contracts in NFL markets.
CFTC reviews NFL’s requests
Sports betting and prediction markets have necessitated a more proactive approach by the NFL and other sports leagues. On top of issuing guidelines for team personnel, the NFL has enacted a series of measures to protect its games from manipulation — its primary goal every time that players take the field.
“The NFL’s highest priority is preserving the integrity of our games,” the league’s letter read, according to The Closing Line. “We believe that this integrity is crucial also to the stable and orderly administration of event contracts that trade on or in connection with our games and to the protection of traders in such contracts.”
The framing of the letter suggests that the CFTC and the NFL previously discussed stronger regulations for event contracts tied to NFL games.
While the letter noted improvements from a previous suggestion of rules, it argued that the new iteration could be better.
“The draft rules fall significantly short of protecting the integrity of sporting events and the fans who participate in these markets,” the league wrote. “It is surprising that further common-sense integrity and consumer protection measures provided in the Prior League Comment Letter were not adopted.”
NFL’s proposals
The NFL is ultimately hoping for several changes to the CFTC’s rules. They include:
- Stronger anti-insider trading rules
- New reviewing requirements for event contracts
- Consumer protections parallel to those that are standard in sports betting
- Restrictions on easily-manipulable markets
In greater detail, the league cited the $200 million traded at Kalshi on LeBron James’ free agency decision as an example of a market (roster decisions) that could be easily manipulated. It also said that the CFTC is not doing enough to curb insider trading, expressed concern with a proposed 10-day window for contract reviews, and asked for the minimum legal trading age to be increased to 21, among other proposals.
The letter comes as the CFTC is reviewing public comment on proposed amendments to Rule 40.11. This rule would create a system for reviewing event contracts related to gaming, acts of terror and tragedy, and unlawful activities.
Prediction market to explode during NFL season
Prediction markets allow users to trade on a seemingly unlimited number of events, including NFL games. Markets can be related to game outcomes, player performances, awards races, championships, and league-sponsored activity. Users just buy “Yes” or “No” contracts associated with different outcomes and win or lose money depending on the result.
Prediction markets only jumped in front of mainstream audiences last NFL season. Even then, they weren’t remotely close to as popular as they are now.
The introduction of combos, prediction platforms’ parlay equivalent, the growing national appetite for prediction contracts, and the backing of the CFTC is a perfect storm for extreme market growth once the new NFL season begins — hence the league’s heavy interest in achieving the proper regulation.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The multi-billion-dollar industry that is the NFL has the cachet and capital to make an impactful dent in conversations involving prediction markets. The bullish approach of the top operators and the CFTC, most recently evidenced in Minnesota, has allowed for exponential growth. The public review period provides an opportunity for these markets to continue growing while remaining in the good graces of powerful industries.