Prediction markets are favoring Portugal in its final World Cup tune-up match against Chile at Eastern at Estádio do Jamor in Portugal on Saturday.
The match, which will serve as one final preparation for the Portuguese ahead of the World Cup, will kick off at 1:45 p.m. Eastern. Top prediction operators Kalshi and Polymarket with Portugal vs. Chile prediction markets have the former as the favorite, with 81% and 80% probabilities of winning the match, respectively.
Viewers can stream the match on Fubo or Apple TV.
Portugal vs. Chile Prediction Market Probabilities
While Portugal will compete with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uzbekistan, and Colombia in Group K of the World Cup, Chile did not qualify for the once-every-four-years competition. They finished at the bottom of the CONMEBOL qualification table with just 11 points, marking the third straight time they failed to reach the tournament.
Although this match is nothing more than a friendly for the Chileans, it is a final litmus test for Portugal. They are widely viewed as a top challenger at the World Cup after the three favorites, France, Spain, and England, after they reached the quarterfinals in 2022.
Polymarket’s log shows that Portugal spiked to a 70% favorite on May 24, and that they have not dropped below that probability in the time sense. They now have an 80% chance of winning the match, while Chile has a 7% chance.
Kalshi’s Portugal vs. Chile prediction prices basically haven’t moved since the market launched. Users at this platform believe that Portugal has an 81% chance of winning, while Chile has an 8% chance.
Portugal
Portugal had a mixed bag of results recently. Their last time on the pitch saw them defeat the USA 2-0 on March 31 behind goals from Francisco Trincão and João Félix. Just three days before that, they played a goalless draw against Mexico.
The Portuguese suffered their last loss in a shocking result against the Republic of Ireland four matches ago on Nov. 13. Soccer icon Cristiano Ronaldo was sent off in the defeat.
Ronaldo recently suffered a muscle injury for his club team, Al-Nassr, although head coach Roberto Martinez has mostly confirmed a full squad for the World Cup.
Even if not at full strength, Portugal is clearly the superior team with elite European talent at nearly every position.
Chile
Chile was defeated by lowly New Zealand in its last international friendly game on March 30, 4-1. They won four straight games before that and even secured a goalless draw against higher-ranked Uruguay in World Cup qualifying in Sept., although they haven’t beaten a reputable soccer nation in years.
The South Americans don’t have anything to play for in the way the Portuguese do, since they won’t be in attendance at the World Cup next week. Nicolás Córdova will take charge once again as his country’s interim head coach following the resignation of Ricardo Gareca last summer.
Córdova has largely led a youthful revolution as Chile looks to find a new talisman to bring them back into prominence. Ben Brereton Diaz of Derby County led the line in the last couple of matches and has experience from playing in Europe, albeit not in the Premier League.
A win for Chile would be unexpected, but would cement real progress for a nation looking to transition to a new era.
Portugal vs. Chile Trade Handle Pick
Just because the madness of the World Cup can bring unforeseen upsets and unforgettable moments, that does not mean that the same can be said about warmup friendlies.
Portugal has many advantages in this matchup. Not just because they have much better personnel, but because they have been together for longer, are playing in front of their home fans after sleeping in a familiar environment, and because they are sharpening their tools for one final time before making the trip to North America.
Picking Chile would be unwise, in our opinion. Anyone looking to take a risk would be best served predicting a draw if Portugal comes out flat and has its eyes fixed on the future, although we still wouldn’t advise that. The Trade Handle pick in this prediction market is Portugal.