With the MLB season just underway, there are many probabilities and prices to bet on at the Top Prediction Market platforms. We are going to take a look at the MLB Futures for MVP from places like Kalshi and Polymarket. We will also share our expert Trade Handle analysis on what the best value trades are for both NL and AL MVPs.
Prices Below via Kalshi and Crypto.com, taken on March 30 at 09:15 AM ET
Kalshi AL MLB MVP Probabilities
Here are the latest probabilities for AL MVP from Kalshi.
Player To Win AL MVP To Lose AL MVP Aaron Judge Yes 33¢ No 68¢ Bobby Witt Jr. Yes 17¢ No 85¢ Julio Rodriguez Yes 9¢ No 93¢ Roman Anthony Yes 7¢ No 93¢ Cal Raleigh Yes 5¢ No 96¢
Crypto.com AL MLB MVP Probabilities
Here are the latest probabilities for AL MVP from Crypto.com.
Player To Win AL MVP To Lose AL MVP Aaron Judge Yes $0.35 No $0.69 Bobby Witt Jr. Yes $0.20 No $0.87 Julio Rodriguez Yes $0.20 No Jose Ramirez Yes $0.16 No Cal Raleigh Yes $0.12 No
Kalshi NL MLB MVP Probabilities
Here are the latest probabilities for the NL MVP from Kalshi.
Player To Win NL MVP To Lose NL MVP Shohei Ohtani Yes 46¢ No 55¢ Juan Soto Yes 13¢ No 88¢ Ronald Acuna Jr. Yes 9¢ No 92¢ Fernando Tatis Jr. Yes 6¢ No 96¢ Kyle Scwarber Yes 3¢ No 99¢
Crypto.com NL MLB MVP Probabilities
Here are the latest probabilities for NL MVP from Crypto.com.
Player To Win NL MVP To Lose NL MVP Shohei Ohtani Yes $0.49 No $0.58 Fernando Tatis Jr. Yes $0.17 No Juan Soto Yes $0.16 No $0.91 Pete Crow-Armstrong Yes $0.06 No Ronald Acuna Jr. Yes No
Highest Probability to Win AL MVP
Aaron Judge is the early favorite to win the AL MVP, which would be his third straight. His power is something to behold, and it's not hard to see him winning another if he stays healthy this season. He will have a little more competition, though, in the AL, with players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez also having strong early-season probabilities.
Highest Probability to Win NL MVP
Shohei is the runaway favorite right now to win his fifth MVP. He has won the last two MVPs in a row in the National League, and if he won this season, it would be his fourth in a row, as he also won the 2023 AL MVP when he was still with the Angels. What makes the probability even higher this season is that he appears set to be a part of the Dodgers' pitching rotation all season for the first time since he joined them.
His value as an elite MVP-level hitter, combined with his all-star-caliber pitching ability, is something never seen in baseball. Yet his value at Kalshi is still over double your money back on a trade, making this trade a great value early in the season.
Best Value Trade to Win AL MVP
Bobby Witt Jr. is our favorite value to win the AL MVP, as he has elite tools. He will likely carry the Royals offensively, but he is also a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop. Playing the premier position in baseball and putting up similar numbers at the plate as Judge would give him a strong chance to win the MVP. Add in his base-stealing ability, and that gives him something Judge doesn't have, making him a threat to keep Judge from winning his third straight MVP.
Best Value Trade to Win NL MVP
Juan Soto is our best value trade to win the NL MVP, and it is squarely because of his ability at the plate. Soto has had a season with 40+ homers and a season where he has hit well above .300. If he could combine the contact hitting and power hitting, that could be enough to challenge Shohei Ohtani for the award, especially if Ohtani deals with any injury troubles.
Longshot Trade to Win AL MVP
Our favorite longshot to win AL MVP is Cal Raleigh, and his prices are surprisingly long after he came in second for MVP last season. Last season, Raleigh really had a breakout year, and if he were to take another step this season, it could be enough to not only challenge but to win the MVP this season.
Longshot Trade to Win NL MVP
Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of the most talented players in baseball, but has really struggled to maintain health in recent seasons. In his last full season, Acuna Jr. won MVP, hitting .337 with 41 home runs, 106 RBIs, and a whopping 73 steals. If Ohtani slips even a little and Acuna Jr. has another season as he did in 2023, it very well could end up with him winning a second MVP.