White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s departure from President Donald Trump’s administration helped bring light to a special trading option at political prediction markets.
Leavitt — who will leave her post at the end of August to be with her young family — is another in a growing list of high-profile figures who find themselves in different positions than they were in when Trump’s second term began in Jan. 2025. Other notable figures include Kristi Noem, Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, Pam Bondi, and several others.
Kalshi political prediction markets pick up
Prediction markets pride themselves on offering contracts for seemingly every aspect of daily life, including the political world. Leavitt’s announcement that she will soon separate herself from the White House brought more attention to one of Kalshi’s trading markets, in which users can predict which top Trump admin figure will be the next out the door.
Leavitt unsurprisingly leads all options with a 99.3% chance, given she already confirmed that she would be stepping down from her position. She is expected to remain involved as an outside adviser and voice for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections in November.
No other figure has a market probability exceeding 50%, meaning that all of the individuals in question are more likely than not to remain in their posts until at least one person leaves. Several, however, are close to flipping that on its head.
Secretary of Education Linda McMahon has a 46% probability of being the next to depart the Trump admin. That’s up 26% from the 20% chance she had just 24 hours ago.
Acting Administrator of the U.S. DOGE Service, Amy Gleason, is close behind at 44%. She has long been the favorite in the market. Although her title is the “Acting” Administrator, there haven’t been any public declarations that she will be replaced. She was also recently named the deputy administrator and chief product officer of the newly created Office of Health Technology and Products at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
Aside from Leavitt, Gleason has been the market leader since May 17, according to Kalshi’s trading records.
Who could be the next one out?
There’s a 10% drop-off between Gleason and the next-closest candidate in Kalshi’s unique political prediction markets.
Chief of Staff Susie Wiles is next on the chopping block with a 34% chance. She consistently dropped after being as high as 45.7% on June 29 before a brief spike last week.
Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick is the final individual with at least a one-third chance of being the next to depart, according to Kalshi’s political prediction markets. Lutnick led all candidates with a 63% chance on May 15, but his chances have declined without interruption in the time since.
Critically, Kalshi’s market will settle regardless of how an individual leaves their position, except for in the case of death or a temporary removal. That includes retirement, resignation, removal, recall, or an expiration of a term without renewal.
Kalshi included a list of approved sources to verify the news. Those include CNN, CNBC, FOX News, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, BBC, the New York Times, and official government records, among others.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Although sports provide the majority of the trading interest at prediction markets, political offerings are firmly ingrained in platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and others. The large list of outgoings less than halfway through Trump’s second term suggests that more high-ranking figures will leave their posts — through various means — but Kalshi’s prediction market allows users to pick who will be the next to go. Of the top candidates, Lutnick has drawn the most public scrutiny after he contradicted a previous claim by revealing he had visited Jeffrey Epstein's private island in 2012.