Bernstein analysts believe that Robinhood's prediction markets are going to become more lucrative than cryptocurrency trading, according to a recent note to clients.
The financial services firm raised its price target for the company’s stock from $130 to $160 while maintaining its “Outperform” rating. A group led by analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote that Robinhood was best positioned to pounce on a $70 billion market opportunity across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities, and compute-linked contracts.
Cryptocurrency trading loses its potency
While Robinhood is poised for overall growth, prediction markets were at the center of Bernstein’s praise.
According to their findings, the platform’s prediction markets are already comparable in volume to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Chhugani also said that Robinhood is expected to increase prediction market revenue at a compounding 64% annual rate through 2028, at which time it would reach $1.7 billion. That would supposedly mark a time when the platform generates more revenue from prediction markets than crypto trading.
Robinhood handles its prediction markets in a joint-venture with Susquehanna International Group known as Rothera. The companies acquired and developed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed infrastructure required for operations, eventually allowing Robinhood to keep everything in-house on its platform and exchange.
Although Rothera only launched in late May, it already processed more than $3.5 billion in contract purchases. The FIFA World Cup — which generated about $51 billion in global notional trading volume — was responsible for approximately 93% of Rothera’s activity, Bernstein’s note said.
Analysts also claimed that Rothera was the fourth-largest prediction outlet by volume just one month after its launch. That’s despite it only handling 16% of Robinhood’s total trading volume, while the remaining 84% had been routed through Kalshi prior to its launch.
Prediction markets gain confidence
Amid the rise of prediction markets, Bernstein lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49%. That was inspired by dwindling trading volumes, with the coin’s value down by 25.8% over the last six months at the time of writing.
Bernstein believes that the second quarter of 2026 could mark the first time that prediction markets overtake cryptocurrency in revenue production for Robinhood. The estimated $150 million in prediction market revenue is up 44.2% from $104 million in the first quarter.
Robinhood’s stock is down 7.7% year-over-year, but it is up 63.2% since March 30, about two months before Rothera went live.
Prediction markets are enjoying a prolonged period of extraordinary growth in America. A recent estimate by H2 Gambling Capital suggested that these markets produced 27% of the total legal sports betting handle during the World Cup, showcasing the industry’s strength as it continues to be backed legally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Although there are no immediate upcoming draws, traders will soon have several high-profile markets ready for action. The NFL and NCAA sports seasons are expected to produce eye-watering totals, particularly since this will be the first time during both seasons that prediction platforms are firmly in the public eye.
The upcoming midterm elections will also service political traders, while other global and financial events will be the subject of recurring opportunities.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction markets are taking seemingly every opportunity to showcase their power in the still-developing industry. The CFTC’s backing of licensed operators, combined with the sheer level of trading interest, should continue to inspire projections such as the one registered by Bernstein.