Two teams with identical 6-1 records, a couple of the NFL's biggest stars, and a Monday night showdown in Minnesota. Tonight's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings has plenty to like. Kalshi traders are giving Buffalo the edge, but the prices suggest a competitive game.
The Bills enter Monday Night Football with a 61% chance of winning, compared to Minnesota's 39%. More than $7 million has already traded on the winner market, making this one worth watching as kickoff approaches.
Bills vs. Vikings: Game Information
- Date: Monday, November 9, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Kalshi win probabilities: Bills 61%, Vikings 39%
Both teams have put together impressive starts, but only one will leave Monday night with its second loss. Minnesota benefits from playing at home, while Buffalo enters as the favorite, according to prediction market traders. With two strong teams facing each other, there's more to consider than their records.
What Kalshi's Prices Tell Us About Tonight
Buffalo is the clear favorite in the winner market, although traders aren't expecting the Bills to run away with this one. Kalshi prices Buffalo winning by more than 3.5 points at 47%, suggesting a narrow victory is very much on the table. The total points market tells a similar story. Traders give the game a 51% chance of finishing above 44.5 combined points, which is about as close to a coin flip as you'll find.
The individual team totals are interesting, too. Minnesota has a 50% chance of scoring more than 20.5 points, while Buffalo has a 45% chance of exceeding 24.5 points. Put it all together, and the market points to a competitive matchup where a few possessions could make the difference.
Josh Allen Could Be Buffalo's Biggest Advantage
When you're looking for a reason to favor Buffalo, Josh Allen is a pretty good place to start. The Bills quarterback can beat defenses with his arm or his legs, and his ability to take off near the goal line makes him especially dangerous. Kalshi traders give Allen a 92% chance of throwing for at least 150 yards and an 89% chance of rushing for at least 10 yards. Those are pretty safe expectations, but we're looking for something with a little more upside. His anytime touchdown market, which excludes passing touchdowns, is priced at 53%.
Our Josh Allen Player Prop: Anytime Touchdown (53%)
We're taking Allen to find the end zone himself on Monday night. Buffalo doesn't need to design an entire drive around his rushing ability, especially when Allen can turn a broken play into six points. With Kalshi pricing his touchdown probability at 53%, we like his chances of making something happen near the goal line.
Justin Jefferson Gives Minnesota a Fighting Chance
Buffalo might be favored, but Minnesota has a pretty good answer in Justin Jefferson. The Vikings receiver can change a game with one big play, and Minnesota will likely need him involved if it wants to pull off the upset. Kalshi gives Jefferson a 91% chance of recording at least 30 receiving yards, so traders clearly expect him to contribute. Finding the end zone is a different story, with his anytime touchdown market sitting at 37%. That's a tougher outcome, but it also makes for a more interesting prediction.
Our Justin Jefferson Player Prop: Anytime Touchdown (37%)
We're going with Jefferson to score a touchdown despite Kalshi giving it just a 37% probability. If Minnesota gets into scoring position, Jefferson is certainly someone Carson Wentz could look toward, especially with his ability to create separation and make contested catches. It's a riskier pick than simply expecting him to rack up receiving yards, but we're backing Minnesota's biggest receiving threat to make his presence felt.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
We're sticking with Buffalo to win Monday night, but we wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota makes this interesting right down to the final possession. Both teams enter at 6-1, and the Vikings have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd. Still, we think Josh Allen gives Buffalo just enough of an advantage to come away with the victory.
Allen's ability to make plays with his legs could be especially important in a close game. We're backing him to find the end zone himself, while also expecting Justin Jefferson to deliver a touchdown for Minnesota. Both predictions carry considerably more risk than the safer yardage markets, but we like the potential upside.
Here are our three predictions for Monday Night Football:
- Game winner: Buffalo Bills (61%)
- Josh Allen: Anytime touchdown (53%)
- Justin Jefferson: Anytime touchdown (37%)
Our final score prediction: Bills 24, Vikings 21.
That gives Buffalo a three-point victory, which lines up nicely with Kalshi pricing the Bills' chances of winning by more than 3.5 points at just 47%. We're expecting both offenses to have their moments, with Allen and Jefferson each finding the end zone. In the end, we're backing Buffalo to make one more play when it matters and escape Minnesota with another win.