Binance.US, a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, is planning to apply for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license to operate prediction markets.
Binance’s grand announcement came courtesy of its CEO, Steven Gregory, during a speech at the Rare Evo conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, via a spokesperson on Wednesday. The platform is expected to submit its application in August.
Binance wants prediction markets
Prediction platforms offer contracts in a slew of markets and industries. Although sports-based markets have proven to be the most popular with customers, those in cryptocurrency haven't struggled to attract an audience.
Binance’s existing cryptocurrency customer base would make it an immediate challenger to leading operators such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Underdog. That said, the platform is already behind in the race for market acquisition.
Gemini Space Station, a crypto exchange and custodian, received its CFTC license in April. Coinbase also announced a partnership with Kalshi in May, allowing it to offer prediction markets to its customers beyond just cryptocurrency.
The Wall Street Journal also reported last week that crypto.com was talking with Robinhood about adding the former’s crypto exchange onto the latter’s app.
Binance lost 35% of the market
Binance has a large name in the world of crypto, although it is not as powerful as it once was.
The platform lost approximately 35% of the market from 2023 to the start of 2026, settling at a 25% overall share. That was catalyzed by anti-money laundering scandals, billion-dollar settlements, and changes in leadership. Former CEO Changpen Zhao served four months in prison before he was pardoned by President Donald Trump.
Zhao has consistently said since his release that he’d like for Binance to grow its American audience.
Making good on company plans
Binance’s announcement follows plans that Gregory outlined earlier this year. He said that he intended for Binance to pursue a full stack of CFTC licenses, allowing it to offer derivatives, perpetual futures, and prediction markets.
Tactics such as this expansion are part of Gregroy’s plans to recover market share that was previously lost. He is targeting roughly 20% of the American crypto exchange market.
If there’s one way to gain or regain an audience in 2026, it’s with prediction markets. CFTC-licensed platforms generated $50.8 billion in combined notional trading volume during the FIFA World Cup in June and are expected to continue their rapid growth, particularly with the NFL season and midterm elections rapidly approaching.
Prediction markets told to slow their roll
As more operators like Binance enter the world of prediction markets, a variety of officials and entities are hoping to see more regulations put in place.
From a legal level, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) on Tuesday signed an executive order that banned insider trading at these platforms. That came on the heels of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC winning a temporary injunction against Minnesota’s Walz-approved and nation’s-first ban on prediction markets.
Organizationally, the NFL also joined the pushback of prediction markets. A letter written to the CFTC detailed why the league believed that the CFTC was not doing enough to protect consumers or the league itself.
A bipartisan coalition of attorneys general from 44 states also sent a letter encouraging the CFTC to write a new set of operating rules for its operators.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction markets seem to be the “easy fix” for platforms hoping to boost their bottom line. Entry into the market doesn’t guarantee success, as seen by the number of sports betting platforms that launched and quickly closed after the practice was legalized federally in 2018. However, Binance’s customer base would make it easier to transition into offering prediction markets than it would be for other entities.