Prediction markets are showing different favorites to win the College Football Playoff than sportsbooks, with more than $20 million traded ahead of Week 1.
The starkest contrast between prediction platforms and legal sportsbooks is that Notre Dame is the co-favorite at leading operators Kalshi and Polymarket, whereas they trail Ohio State at major sportsbooks. That’s just one of multiple differences between prediction markets and sports betting sites, which see the race to secure college football glory much differently across their respective industries.
College football prediction markets reveal value
Kalshi’s College Football Playoff prediction markets have Notre Dame and Ohio State tied with a leading 13% chance of winning the upcoming national championship. Texas (12%), Oregon (11%), Georgia (10%), and defending champion Indiana (9%) immediately follow.
Polymarket sees the competition differently. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oregon all lead the board at 14%, while Indiana and last year’s runner-up, Miami, both sit at 12%. Texas (11%) and Georgia (10%) separate the top-tier contenders from the chase pack.
The lack of agreement between traders at both platforms reflects the early-season division between traders. It also highlights hedging opportunities on both platforms.
Additionally, it is a reminder that event contracts offered by prediction platforms are often completely different from sports betting odds.
| Team | Kalshi Probability | Polymarket Probability | FanDuel Implied Probability |
| Notre Dame | 13% | 14% | 15.4% |
| Ohio State | 13% | 14% | 14.3% |
| Oregon | 11% | 14% | 11.8% |
| Georgia | 10% | 10% | 12.5% |
| Texas | 12% | 11% | 11.1% |
| Indiana | 9% | 12% | 10.5% |
| Miami | 8% | 12% | 7.7% |
| LSU | 6% | 5% | 3.9% |
The marquee difference is that Notre Dame is the co-favorite at both prediction outlets and second at FanDuel, yet FanDuel charges the highest price, based on likelihood.
Sportsbooks are also much higher on Georgia than public traders at college football prediction markets. FanDuel lists them third, while Kalshi and Polymarket have the Dawgs fifth and seventh, respectively.
There’s also strong disagreement with Miami. Polymarket traders appear to be abnormally high on the Hurricanes, which is either an early sign of market inefficiency or a bald-faced mistake.
College Football Playoff trading
College Football prediction markets were given a taste of action last week during Week 0, the abbreviated weekend when only a few FBS teams are in action. There are more than 90 games that will be played this weekend, starting on Thursday evening.
Thursday night’s showdown between the Deion Sanders-led Colorado and Georgia Tech generated about $446,000 in trades on the morning of the matchup. The most anticipated game of the weekend, a battle between Clemson and No. 11 LSU, is already up to an approximate $264,800 trading volume. LSU is very familiar with prediction markets, according to a report that revealed an insurance company hedged $3 million of the athletic department's risk at Kalshi.
Those are just two of thousands of games that will be played in anticipation of the CFP. Although that won’t begin until Dec. 18, prediction markets already processed just below $21 million in trades related to the future champion.
Kalshi doesn’t show trading interest by team, but Polymarket has highlighted Notre Dame as the most popular pick based on volume of both “Yes” and “No” outcomes. Indiana, Miami and Oregon are close behind.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
College football prediction markets should explode in activity once this weekend’s games get underway. The division between Kalshi and Polymarket, along with the prediction and sports betting industries, highlights a variety of market opportunities that exist and will likely disappear once games start being played. Notre Dame stands out at prediction markets since both Kalshi and Polymarket list them as co-favorites, but with a more favorable price than FanDuel, which lists the Fighting Irish second to Ohio State.