Polymarket US is gaining ground on Kalshi’s prediction markets in the race to control the American audience.
According to analytics platform DeFi Rate, Polymarket US processed $2.8 billion in trades during the week that ended on Sunday, Sept. 27. That represented a 2.1% increase in the total volume for prediction markets and was a higher raw total than Kalshi, which is still setting records on a daily basis.
Polymarket US prediction markets surge
It did not take long for consumers to become attached to prediction markets. While they were only beginning to make waves around this time last year, they are now permanent fixtures in the mainstream for their event contracts in politics, sports, finance, and a variety of other industries.
Prediction markets are still growing in America despite strong pushback from state officials and a series of recent court losses. Many of these have ruled in favor of local officials and regulators by opening the door to them applying gaming enforcement or preventing operators from securing preliminary injunctions.
According to DeFi Rate, Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US processed approximately $19.5 billion in trades last week, up 3.9% from the previous week’s $18.7 billion. That included a new daily high of $3.2 billion by Kalshi, whose weekly volume was up 2.6% to $15.7 billion.
Although Kalshi retained its spot atop the chart, Polymarket US showed the most growth. Its $2.83 billion in volume was up $491.6 million (21%) week-over-week, while Kalshi was capped at a $395.4 million improvement.
Combos — the prediction market equivalent of sportsbook parlays — were a major player in Polymarket’s success. They generated $1.5 billion in trades, up 44.4% on the previous week, to account for 54.1% of all weekly volume.
Bitcoin prediction markets also played a major role in helping Polymarket US grow. Trading volume ballooned from less than $500,000 to $50.7 million, almost entirely because of 15-minute and hourly markets that allowed traders to predict quick, real-time price changes in cryptocurrency.
Competition ramps up
Kalshi’s $15.7 billion volume represented a leading 80.5% of all trades processed by prediction markets last week. But it was Polymarket US that grew to a 14.6% market share and was responsible for about two-thirds of all net weekly increases.
Combos were once again at the heart of this growth. Week-over-week trading volume only grew by $20 million, while combo trading was up $471.2 million. In other words, 95.9% of Polymarket US’ growth in prediction markets was through combos.
Polymarket International primarily felt the effects of the American hub’s success. Trading volume dropped from $1.1 billion the previous week to $964.1 million, marking a 13.5% decline. That total represented 5% of the total market.
This coincides with a surge in mobile app downloads for Polymarket. According to Citizens, Polymarket leads all prediction market and sports betting operators in downloads (1.4 million), besting Kalshi (1.3 million), DraftKings (805,000), FanDuel (502,000), and competing operators.
It should come as no surprise that this prominent growth occurred during the NFL season. All 10 of Polymarket US’ largest individual prediction markets last week were related to football, including a leading $27.7 million market for the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs.
Still, football only accounted for 4.4% of total trading volume at Polymarket US.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Kalshi spent the summer month pushing well ahead of Polymarket, showing more explosive growth during events such as the FIFA World Cup. Polymarket US’ resurgence will help it stay in the race to lead the American market, although it still only processed 14.6% of the total trading volume last week. The recent increase in competing operators and sweeping legal losses nationwide leave prediction markets in a position of uncertainty moving forward, and the race to join Kalshi atop the industry leaderboard is still on.