Artificial intelligence is getting its own dedicated prediction market. Crypto.com and PYMNTS have announced an exclusive two-year partnership to launch more than 20 AI-focused event contracts through OG Prediction Markets beginning in September. Instead of asking traders to forecast elections or sports results, these markets will focus on measurable questions about how quickly AI is changing businesses, jobs, and everyday life.
The idea is to turn PYMNTS Intelligence's ongoing AI research into contracts that traders can buy and sell. OG Prediction Markets provides the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing infrastructure, while Crypto.com will help distribute the products. If you're wondering how quickly AI is actually being adopted rather than how much hype surrounds it, these markets are designed around that question.
AI Adoption Becomes Something You Can Trade
The first batch will include more than 20 contracts covering areas such as consumer behavior, workforce transformation, healthcare, financial services, retail, and enterprise AI deployment. The companies aren't stopping there either. They plan to introduce roughly 25 additional contracts each quarter as the partnership develops.
What makes these markets unusual is how they will settle. PYMNTS has spent nearly 30 months tracking AI adoption, giving the companies an existing dataset rather than starting from scratch. New measurements will continue arriving monthly and quarterly, allowing contracts to settle against updated research.
The underlying data comes from three main sources:
- Monthly research involving 4,000 U.S. adults
- Quarterly surveys of 500 U.S. enterprises
- Quarterly analysis of SEC filings, earnings materials, and other corporate disclosures
This isn't Another ChatGPT Popularity Contest
There's a pretty big difference between asking whether a new AI model launches next month and measuring whether companies are actually putting AI to work. These contracts are aimed at the second category. That could give OG a different corner of the prediction market industry to build around.
For example, traders could take positions based on changes in workplace automation or consumer AI usage. The contracts will use independently collected measurements and predetermined settlement methodologies. That structure could also make the resulting market prices interesting to businesses and investors following AI adoption.
OG Gets a Chance to Carve Out Its Own Lane
Prediction markets have grown rapidly, but much of the attention has centered on sports and politics. Crypto.com, PYMNTS and OG are effectively testing whether a completely different subject can generate sustained trading activity. AI certainly isn't lacking for attention, but turning that interest into an active prediction market is another question.
The scale of the rollout suggests this won't be a small experiment. Starting with more than 20 contracts and adding around 25 each quarter could quickly create a substantial AI category. The two-year exclusive partnership also gives the companies time to see which types of questions traders actually care about.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
We like the concept here because prediction markets don't need to revolve around sports and elections. AI adoption is moving quickly, plenty of people disagree about where it's headed, and PYMNTS already has nearly 30 months of measurements to build contracts around. That's a pretty natural combination.
The interesting part will be whether you can turn all that interest in AI into consistent trading activity. If these contracts develop meaningful liquidity, OG could have a category that feels distinctly its own while giving traders another way to forecast one of the biggest economic shifts happening right now. That would be a much more important outcome than simply launching another batch of AI-themed markets.