The Los Angeles Dodgers’ Saturday trade acquisition of pitching ace Tarik Skubal pushed their chances of winning the World Series even higher at leading prediction markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket both showed a spike in the Dodgers’ probability of winning their third straight championship immediately and in the days following the trade, which sent three prospects — outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handers River Ryan and Brady Smith — in the other direction to the Detroit Tigers. The 29-year-old Skubal was set to become a free agent at the end of the season.
Prediction markets react to Skubal joining the Dodgers
With the World Cup's record-setting trading period over, all eyes are on the diamond.
The Dodgers are a half-game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in baseball with a current mark of 69-43. Their +150 run differential is the best in the sport, and they rank third in runs scored and fifth in team ERA.
The back-to-back champions are also second in combined ERA for starting pitchers only (3.42), fittingly, just behind the Brewers (3.36) and ahead of the Tigers (3.44).
Adding Skubal, the back-to-back Cy Young winner, to the Dodgers’ rotation gives them a five-man lineup of him, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow. They also have Edwin Diaz, one of the league’s best closers, to finish off their games.
Kalshi already had the Dodgers as the favorite to win the World Series (36%) on July 31, the day before the Skubal trade was finalized. They pushed ahead to 41% at the time of writing, making them over three times more likely to win the MLB championship than the closest contender, the New York Yankees (12%). The league-leading Brewers are tied for fourth at 6.6%.
The balance of power was tipped even further at Polymarket. The Dodgers jumped from 33% to 40% at midnight on Sunday morning before settling at 38%.
Roughly $81 million in trades related to the next World Series winner have been processed at both Kalshi and Polymarket’s American platform.
MLB awards outlooks
Skubal’s Cy Young streak will come to an end now that he has switched from the American League to the National League. But according to prediction markets, Skubal was already off the pace.
The Yankees’ Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) has a 63% chance at Kalshi of winning the award for the best pitcher in the AL. The Toronto Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease (7-5, 2.41 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) is second with a 33% chance.
The Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski (11-5, 1.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP) is a dominant favorite in the NL Cy Young prediction market with a 79% chance. Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves (12-6, 2.08 ER, 1.02 WHIP) is second at just 8%.
[kalshi-chart market="KXMLBNLMVP-26
Even if prediction markets don’t expect Skubal to take home any hardware, the same can’t be said about his new teammate, Ohtani. Kalshi users believe there is a 63% chance of the two-way superstar tying Barry Bonds’ MLB record by winning his fourth straight MVP, including his third in three years since he signed with the Dodgers. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs is second with a 37% chance.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The Dodgers have been World Series favorites since the offseason, and adding Skubal only furthered their lead in prediction markets. There’s no doubt that they have the best lineup in baseball, but anything can happen once the postseason arrives. A successful World Series conquest in October would make the Dodgers the third team in league history to complete a championship three-peat.