Prediction markets may feel like a brand-new industry to many traders, but Mick Bransfield quickly points out that their history stretches back decades. Bransfield of Kingston Chase Consulting, who maintains his own prediction market research website, joined Trade Handle for an exclusive interview to discuss that history, the industry's regulatory fight, and what new traders should understand before putting money into a market.
Bransfield has watched the industry's rapid rise from a particularly interesting perspective. He originally came from politics and political data, where his familiarity with polling initially made him skeptical that prediction markets could produce useful forecasts. After digging into their accuracy during the pandemic, he said the data changed his mind.
Watch Our Exclusive Interview With Mick Bransfield
Trade Handle's Caleb Tallman sat down with Bransfield to discuss how prediction markets work, the industry's complex regulatory structure, and where he believes the market could head next. The conversation also covered his database of prediction platforms and why traders may not realize which exchange is behind the product they use.
Bransfield's website tracks roughly 1,000 prediction markets, including more than 430 active real-money or crypto platforms by his count. He also maintains regulatory information and a litigation tracker, giving traders a way to follow an industry where the legal landscape can change quickly.
Prediction Markets Have Been Around Longer Than You Think
Bransfield pushed back on the idea that prediction markets suddenly appeared during their recent surge in popularity. He pointed to the Iowa Electronic Markets, which began operating in 1988 and received regulatory authorization in the early 1990s, as one example of just how far back the concept goes.
His own introduction came much later. With a background in political data, Bransfield initially believed polling and traditional modeling would outperform traders trying to forecast elections. "I took a deep dive into prediction market accuracy and just saw I was wrong. They actually were exceedingly accurate."
That discovery eventually turned into deeper research into the industry itself. Today, his work covers everything from market accuracy to regulation and the relationships between exchanges and the companies offering access to their contracts.
The Exchange Behind Your App May Surprise You
One area Bransfield believes deserves more attention is how prediction market infrastructure actually works. A trader may encounter an event contract through a familiar brokerage or financial app without realizing that another company operates the underlying exchange.
"There are actually fewer exchanges than people realize," Bransfield told us. He pointed to the growing number of companies routing prediction-market activity through existing regulated exchanges rather than building every piece of infrastructure themselves.
That trend has continued as the industry expands. Robinhood, for example, recently added another prediction-market relationship through Crypto.com's OG.com alongside its existing market infrastructure, illustrating how distribution and exchange operation can be separate parts of the business.
Bransfield Doesn't Expect the Legal Fight to End Quickly
The regulatory battle produced one of the most interesting disagreements during our conversation. Bransfield believes the industry's size alone does not protect it from major regulatory changes, particularly when established industries have their own financial interests at stake.
He also cautioned against assuming the Supreme Court will quickly settle the question. Recent appellate decisions have produced conflicting interpretations of whether federal commodities law prevents states from applying their own laws to sports event contracts. Still, those disputes have largely reached appeals courts through preliminary-injunction proceedings.
Bransfield sees several separate hurdles, not one decisive court case. "The three hurdles prediction markets have to clear are the courts, the CFTC and Congress almost in that order."
That distinction matters. Even a major court victory would not necessarily prevent Congress from changing federal law or the CFTC from taking a different regulatory approach in the future. The Ninth Circuit's August ruling against Kalshi and the Third Circuit's earlier ruling favoring Kalshi demonstrate how unsettled the jurisdictional question remains.
Fewer Platforms Could Actually Mean Stronger Markets
Bransfield expects another major change over the next year: consolidation. Hundreds of prediction markets may exist today, but maintaining enough traders and liquidity to support smaller platforms can be difficult.
"In one year from now, I think we'll see fewer prediction markets," Bransfield said. Rather than viewing that entirely as a negative, he believes concentrating activity among fewer exchanges could produce deeper liquidity.
His longer-term outlook was considerably more dramatic. "In five years, prediction markets will need to be too big to fail or they'll have been outlawed. It'll be one of the two."
It was easily one of the strongest statements from our conversation, but it captures how Bransfield views the industry's current position. Prediction markets are growing quickly while simultaneously facing fundamental questions about how they will be regulated.
His Advice for New Traders is Pretty Simple
We end many of our Trade Handle interviews with the same question: What would you tell someone making their first prediction market trade? Bransfield didn't recommend a particular platform, market category or strategy.
His answer was research. "A brand new trader needs to do their homework and needs to do a lot of research. If you're not putting new information into the market, you're almost certainly going to lose money in the long run."
That advice fits particularly well with Bransfield's own path into the industry. He entered prediction markets believing his existing knowledge gave him the better answer, researched the data, and ultimately changed his mind.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
What stood out to us about Bransfield wasn't a prediction about which exchange will win or exactly where the legal battles will land. It was his reminder that this industry has considerably more history and complexity behind it than its recent explosion might suggest.
Prediction markets now have major financial companies distributing contracts, billions of dollars moving through platforms, and courts reaching different conclusions about the boundaries of federal and state authority. The next stage may be less about proving prediction markets can attract traders and more about determining which platforms, infrastructure, and regulatory framework survive that growth.
Bransfield's advice for traders may also be the simplest takeaway from the entire conversation. Prediction markets are designed to turn information into prices, so showing up without doing your homework means you're entering a market where someone else probably has.