Trade Handle was on site at NEXTPredict 2026, where Bob Fitzsimmons moderated a conversation involving the future of prediction market event contracts.
The Wedbush Executive Vice President led Beyond Sports: Where Event Contracts Go Next, featuring a panel of four dialed-in experts. Dragonfly General Partner Rob Hadick, CBOE Global Markets SVP JJ Kinahan, Cantor Fitzgerald Managing Director Matthew Decicco, and Coinfund Partner Einar Braathen all contributed to the “beyond sports” discussion.
Is There a Business Beyond Sports Markets?
Dragonfly General Partner Rob Hadick noted that “it’s early” in an attempt to view prediction markets beyond sports event contracts. However, he noted that prediction markets like Polymarket first exploded behind the interest of political markets.
Matthew Decicco from Cantor Fitzgerald doubled down on the sentiment that prediction markets can develop into another useful part of any financial institution’s “tool kit”. Decicco mentioned how existing users on his platform are immediately interested in a variety of non-sports financial markets. He also noted that the “institutional use cases are incredibly broad” and easy for consumers to digest.
Market Depth & Reach Has Grown
Coinfund Partner Einar Braathen spoke on prediction market depth and reach, citing the industry’s growth as an indicator of future success. He was also asked what is changing and what makes non-sports contracts more prevalent, with his answer being a focus on retail participants and distribution.
Per Braathen, the markets we see now are “much healthier” than when prediction markets were more of a niche product. He cited how companies can use weather derivatives to hedge impact on business, and how specific markets that entities may desire need to be liquid.
That shines a light on both market availability and consumer awareness. With the growth of prediction markets, people are becoming more aware of not just the existence of non-sports event contracts, but precisely how they can profit from them.
Assessing Innovative Markets
Staying with Braathen, Bob Fitzsimmons questioned new innovative markets worth exploring. Braathen said this is “really, really early stuff”, but touched on a variety of markets that could help supplant sports-heavy offerings in the future.
Those included the following:
- Opinion markets - Taking positions on polls or opinions.
- Impact markets (conditional markets) - Betting on outcomes if something happens.
Braathen cited the latter as a conditional contract, using an example of “what is the price of Bitcoin going to be if Trump gets elected”.
He noted this market was especially interesting, as directional markets may still include some iteration of a bet’s impact, but conditional markets allow you to isolate some of the events. You can also price these markets differently and get different risk exposure compared to directional markets.
Braathen did concede that these types of markets are newer and still developing, however.
State of Prediction Markets if Sports Contracts Go Away
With top prediction market platforms engaged in legal battles, Fitzsimmons asked the panel what the industry would look like if sports contracts disappeared.
Dragonfly’s Rob Hadik declared “sports markets won’t go away”. Rather, U.S. states would simply demand “their pound of flesh” in the way of regulatory changes, taxes, or licensing fees, in order to allow prediction markets to conduct business.
Running with the hypothetical, Hadik leaned on the “exploding” institutional aspect of prediction markets as a huge positive. Hadik referenced continued learning, growing interest, and active integration of prediction markets with massive financial institutions as a good sign.
Hadik said, “These markets are getting much, much bigger. The exchanges in this space are getting much, much bigger. You can’t really derail this train”.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction markets are undeniably riding the wave of sports contracts to where they’ve gotten. However, major players like Kalshi and Polymarket have worked hard to embed themselves into the financial fabric of numerous institutions, and the industry continues to grow.
The NEXTPredict 2026 panel discussing event contracts beyond sports highlighted a promising future. It’s one that isn’t quite as grim as U.S. lawmakers want prediction markets to think, and it’s also one that may be able to do more than survive without sports; it may just thrive.
There are still regulatory hurdles that temporarily delay the growth of the industry. Sports are being positioned as a way for lawmakers to get the upper hand. But despite being a huge part of the rise of prediction markets, sports contracts don’t necessarily define the industry’s future.