Getting people to sign up for a prediction market isn't necessarily the hard part anymore. With companies like Kalshi and Polymarket becoming household names, more people are trying these platforms. The bigger challenge is getting them to come back, and that's exactly what SENSE is trying to help prediction market companies solve.
I recently spoke with SENSE's founder, an advertising platform taking a different approach to finding customers for prediction markets. We talked about why some marketing strategies that worked for traditional sports platforms might not translate well, what smaller exchanges can do to compete, and why getting someone to register is only the beginning.
One thing became pretty clear during our conversation. SENSE isn't nearly as interested in how many people click an advertisement as in what they do afterward.
SENSE isn't Chasing Signups Alone
SENSE is a premium omnichannel advertising platform specializing in regulated industries, with prediction markets becoming a key area of focus. The company helps operators find potential customers through targeted advertising, audience research, and data that tracks what happens after someone joins a platform.
The founder believes prediction markets face a different set of challenges than the traditional sports and casino businesses many marketing companies know. "Prediction markets aren't the same as a sportsbook and obviously a casino," he told Trade Handle.
He thinks the industry needs to pay more attention to that distinction. A company might spend a considerable amount of money attracting new customers, but that investment means little if those customers disappear after their first trade. For SENSE, the real work starts after that initial registration.
Two Customers Can Look Identical Until Six Months Later
The founder gave me an example that explains his approach pretty well. Imagine two people opening accounts on the same prediction market platform. Both deposit $100, make a few trades, and look like equally valuable new customers. Fast-forward six months, though, and things could look completely different.
One person might have deposited $10,000 over that period, while the other deposited only $50 more. If you're the company that paid to acquire those customers, you'd probably want to know what made the first person keep coming back. That's the information SENSE wants to help operators understand.
Instead of simply counting registrations, its platform looks at customer activity over time, including:
- Deposit frequency: How often customers return and add money.
- Average deposit size: Whether customers increase their deposits.
- Repeat participation: How regularly someone returns to trade.
- Lifetime value: What a customer contributes over a longer period.
- Advertising performance: Whether marketing spending is bringing in worthwhile customers.
The idea is to learn which customer types are most likely to stay active, then use that information to improve future advertising campaigns. This is especially relevant for smaller exchanges that can't afford to spend endlessly on customer acquisition.
A Sports Trader isn't Necessarily a Politics Trader
Another thing SENSE is looking closely at is how different prediction market audiences can be. Someone who follows every NFL game might have very little interest in trading on Federal Reserve decisions. A person who spends hours following political news might never open a sports contract.
Yet many advertising campaigns still treat potential prediction market customers as if they all want the same thing. SENSE wants to get more specific. The company looks at audience behavior, including what content people consume, when they're active online, their interests, and how existing customers use different platforms.
It then uses that information to help exchanges reach people more likely to care about the markets they offer. "People are starting to carve out their own niches," the founder explained. He believes that could become especially important as more prediction market companies enter the industry.
Not every exchange needs to appeal to everyone. A platform that excels at serving one group of traders could find an audience without trying to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket in every category.
Can Anyone Really Catch Kalshi and Polymarket?
We spent some time talking about how quickly the prediction market industry has changed. Just a couple of years ago, most people outside a relatively small group of traders probably couldn't have named a prediction market exchange. Today, Kalshi and Polymarket are attracting national attention, signing major partnerships, and spending heavily to reach new customers.
That's great for awareness, but it also creates a difficult situation for smaller companies. The founder compared it to the early days of social media, when companies were trying to build alternatives to Facebook.
The challenge wasn't necessarily finding people interested in social media. It was giving them a reason to use something other than the biggest platform. He sees a similar situation developing in prediction markets. "If people can create different types of experiences that feel more bespoke and niche, I think there's opportunities there," he said.
Celebrity Ads Get Attention, But Do They Keep Traders?
Prediction market advertising has become hard to miss lately. Companies have turned to celebrity endorsements and attention-grabbing campaigns to reach people who might never have considered opening a prediction market account. The founder doesn't question that these campaigns can attract attention. What interests him is what happens once they visit the platform.
Someone might see a commercial featuring a celebrity they like, download an app, and create an account. But if they don't understand the markets or aren't very interested in trading, will they still be using that platform six months later?
That's the question he thinks operators should be asking. A campaign could bring in plenty of website visitors and new registrations without necessarily producing many regular traders. He'd rather see companies spend more time figuring out which customers are genuinely interested in their products and how to keep those customers engaged.
That doesn't make celebrity partnerships a bad idea. They can introduce prediction markets to people who might never hear about them otherwise. SENSE simply believes that getting someone's attention and turning them into a regular customer are two different jobs.
What SENSE Actually Does for Prediction Market Companies
So how does SENSE put all this into practice? The company works with operators on advertising strategy, audience identification, campaign creation, and results measurement. Its services cover several types of advertising, including:
- Connected television and streaming video
- Online video advertisements
- Display advertising
- Mobile advertising
SENSE also offers creative development for companies without their own advertising teams. That's an area the founder believes could be useful for newer prediction market businesses. Many exchanges have small teams focused heavily on building their technology and developing new markets. Advertising isn't necessarily their specialty, and figuring out how to spend a limited marketing budget can be difficult.
SENSE wants to handle some of that work while using customer data to improve campaigns over time. They also have expertise in navigating advertising platform restrictions and compliance requirements, which is crucial in the current legal landscape. The company has primarily worked directly with exchanges and operators so far, although the founder said it's open to exploring relationships with affiliate companies. He chose not to identify the operators SENSE currently works with.
Where Does the Industry Go From Here?
Despite the ongoing legal fights surrounding prediction markets, the founder doesn't expect the industry to shrink over the next few years. "I don't see, in the grand scheme of things, in a couple of years prediction markets getting any smaller," he told me.
He pointed to how quickly Kalshi and Polymarket have become recognizable brands and how much more mainstream the industry feels today than it did earlier this year. Still, he thinks there's a lot of work to do to educate potential customers. Plenty of people have heard of prediction markets without really understanding what they are or how event contracts work.
That creates an interesting challenge for advertisers. It's one thing to convince someone to check out a platform, but it's another to help them understand why they might want to use it regularly. For SENSE, that means the marketing conversation needs to go beyond attracting the next wave of registrations.
His Advice for Someone Making Their First Trade
I always like asking people I interview what advice they'd give someone opening a prediction market account for the first time. The SENSE founder had a pretty straightforward answer. "My advice to them is to focus on something that is their passion point," he said.
He suggested starting with something you already enjoy following or know a fair amount about. If you're really into sports, politics, economics, or another subject, look for markets related to those interests rather than simply trading whatever happens to be featured on the homepage.
He also encouraged new traders to be patient. One or two unsuccessful trades don't necessarily tell you whether you'll enjoy prediction markets. Giving yourself time to understand how the platform works can make a difference.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
One of the most interesting things I learned from talking with the SENSE founder was how little he focused on simply bringing more people into prediction markets. That's usually one of the first things companies talk about. More registrations, more downloads, more customers, and bigger numbers.
But there's a difference between getting someone to try a platform and building a business around people who actually want to keep using it. We think that's going to become a bigger conversation as prediction markets continue to grow.
Kalshi and Polymarket have already shown how much attention the industry can attract. Smaller companies now have to figure out where they fit, who their customers are, and how to reach them without wasting their marketing budgets. SENSE believes it can help answer some of those questions by focusing on the customers who stick around instead of treating every registration as a success.
Whether its approach delivers the results operators want remains to be seen. But the question behind it makes plenty of sense. Getting people through the door is great, but what are you doing to make them want to come back?