Gibraltar is officially the world’s first jurisdiction to introduce a specified regulatory framework for prediction markets.
The British Overseas Territory has already licensed two operators, Official FIFA World Cup partner ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire. ADI Predicstreet was granted an intermediary license, while Wire Markets was approved in principle.
The new regulations
Gibraltar’s new regulations, which will act as part of the Gambling Act of 2025, were announced by its Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, on Monday.
“[The rules are] a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world,” he said.
According to the 24-page rulebook licensing prediction operators, every event contract market must be approved by the Gambling Authority. Contracts must also contain clear rules for settlement and be protected against manipulation.
An independent oversight panel will monitor prediction market operations, while operators are responsible for monitoring markets to identify, correct, and prevent market abuse.
“The focus is not on labels,” Feetham said, “but on ensuring that the chosen framework is capable of effective supervision and robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention.”
Expanding Gibraltar’s gaming-centric market
Gibraltar’s economy is heavily influenced by online gaming. It has licensed a plethora of online casinos and sportsbooks, known in other countries as offshore operators, which offer gambling services to individuals worldwide, including in banned jurisdictions.
The swelling popularity of prediction markets has resulted in many sports bettors switching platforms, capitalizing on sports event contracts offered by companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The natural evolution of Gibraltar’s economy would be to license these platforms, whose revenue totals are growing with shocking speed.
Feetham announced in April that Gibraltar has licensed ADI Predictstreet as its first operator of prediction markets. He also said that the platform has been designated as a Business-to-Consumer Betting Intermediary, which is a status reserved for betting platforms.
Gibraltar added WagerWire in June, also under the Betting Intermediary title.
“Gibraltar is proud to lead the world,” Feetham said. “Together, we are building a modern, trusted, and innovation-friendly environment that supports economic growth.”
America is watching
Although there aren’t any direct connections between the U.S. and Gibraltar, the development of standalone prediction market regulation is noteworthy. State regulators have found themselves at constant odds with prediction operators, who insist their platforms are compliant with Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-established regulations.
State officials’ arguments essentially accuse prediction operators of living in an unintended gray area of the law, which does not directly approve or deny the existence of sports markets. Contracts purchased by customers resemble sports betting odds in that users win or lose money in sports depending on the accuracy of their predictions in sports events, except they compete against other users, not the house, in a peer-to-peer system.
The CFTC on June 10 proposed a new set of rules to officially permit contracts offered by prediction markets, including sports events. They also suggested prohibitions on micro-betting-style contracts and high-risk markets that are prone to manipulation or against the public interest, such as those related to death and tragedy.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Gibraltar’s friendliness to online gambling companies should make it an appealing home for prediction operators now that its regulatory framework is in place. Additionally, jurisdictions that are looking to destigmatize prediction markets with federal legislation now have an example to reference. Prediction markets averaged more than $1 billion in daily notional trading volume during in June in America, and it’s unlikely their momentum dies down any time soon.