Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Platform Is Better?

An introduction to Kalshi and Polymarket - two top prediction exchanges

Kalshi and Polymarket are both prediction exchanges. They facilitate the trading of yes and no contracts relating to real-world predictions. As we stated in our guide on what are prediction markets, they use a peer-2-peer trading system where you buy and sell contracts with other customers. The exchange simply takes a small commission in the form of trading fees for facilitating the transactions. To start this comparison of these two brands, let’s summarize their offerings and get a little bit of context.

Kalshi - huge variety and trade volume

Polymarket - low fees and great usability

Prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket: pros and cons

Kalshi vs Polymarket - prediction market variety

The first thing we wanted to look at for this Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison was the prediction market variety. An exchange is only as good as the predictions that it offers and it should cover a wide selection of global events to appeal to a wide range of traders. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have an impressive set of prediction markets, covering everything from sport and politics to crypto and tech. There isn’t much to choose between the two, and the only real difference is that Kalshi offers slightly more US markets, whereas Polymarket has a few more global predictions.

Kalshi - all major prediction markets covered

Kalshi sets the gold standard when it comes to prediction variety, and at the time of writing this guide it featured the following markets:

• Elections.
• Politics.
• Sports.
• Culture.
• Crypto.
• Climate.
• Economics.
• Mentioned.
• Companies.
• Financials.
• Tech & Science.

There’s loads of predictions within these categories, and we especially like the sports prediction and US political markets. There isn’t really one area that Kalshi lacks, and you can see some example predictions it has offered in the below table:

Polymarket - great variety for non-sports predictions

Polymarket is right up there in terms of prediction variety, and you can trade the following markets:

• Politics.
• Sports.
• Crypto.
• Esports.
• Finance.
• Geopolitics.
• Tech.
• Culture.
• Economy.
• Weather.
• Mentions.
• Elections.

This is a brilliant site for global economic and political predictions, and we also think that it has some of the more robust crypto predictions you can find. In the below table we’ve listed some examples of previously live Polymarket predictions:

Kalshi vs Polymarket - usability

Prediction trading is complex enough on its own, so you don’t want to struggle to actually use the exchange or have poor mobile accessibility. This is why we have looked at the desktop and mobile usability for both brands. The desktop websites virtually look the same and they both feature a similar layout that’s easy to understand and makes for quick navigation between categories. Similarly, both have an Android and iOS mobile app, however, at this point in time, the Polymarket Android app is still being rolled out, which has caused issues with waiting list times.

Kalshi vs Polymarket - payment and trading fees

As prediction trading is a peer-2-peer activity, exchanges must charge trading fees. On top of that, there can also be payment fees for depositing and withdrawing money from your account. Kalshi operates a fee structure based on a complex formula, while Polymarket has variable fees based on the probability of prediction markets.

Kalshi - a complex fee formula

Kalshi does not charge payment fees for ACH deposits, but there is a $2 charge for debit card withdrawals, and a 2% fee for debit card deposits. For trading, this site uses a complex formula to determine the take fees. From our experience, these typically average around 1.4% but will vary depending on things like the trade volume of the prediction. From what we can see, Kalshi does not charge settling fees if you hold your trade contracts.

Polymarket - variable fees

Polymarket has only recently introduced trading fees, and it uses a variable system, where the fee is higher as you approach the 50% probability range for yes or no trade contracts. For example, you would have a higher fee for a yes contract with a price of 49c as opposed to a yes contract with a price of 87c. Typically, the maximum fee you can pay is around 1.80%. Some specific markets like geopolitics and world events also have no fees. In most instances, Polymarket also charges no fees for deposits or withdrawals.

Kalshi vs Polymarket - transparency and support

Due to the uncertainty surrounding prediction trading in the US, and the potential for insider trading, it is important to look at the transparency and legitimacy of these two brands, the measures they take to protect their customers, and how easily you can access support. In recent months, Kalshi has gone to great strengths to eliminate insider trading which it did reportedly surfer from, and it also has excellent transparency. Similarly, Polymarket has always done everything above board, offers great support, and is open about how it operates.

Kalshi - a legit prediction exchange

Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and it has some of the most transparent documentation you can find relating to date usage, privacy, regulatory compliance, market integrity, institutional trading, and trading prohibitions. Although this site has been known to struggle with limited cases of insider trading in the past, it has taken great strides to crack down on this including proactive account screening and report functions for those who think they have spotted suspicious activity.

Polymarket - great support and transparency

Polymarket is also CFTC regulated, and it offers a large range of documentation relating to how it works and its services. This includes pages relating to the terms of use, market integrity, and user privacy. We have always been impressed with the customer support at Polymarket too, which is contained within the help center. Here you get loads of FAQs, and can use the live chat which should be active 24/7.

Kalshi vs Polymarket - volume and activity

A prediction exchange could feature all the markets in the world, but if it has a small user base and low trade volume then you may struggle to meet your buy and sell orders for trade contracts. We do not think you will experience those issues with either Kalshi or Polymarket. Kalshi is currently recognized as the largest prediction exchange in the US by some margin, with Polymarket coming in second. From our experiences, Kalshi does offer more trade volume, but we have never had any issues with our buy and sell orders being met on either site.

Conclusion - it might be a simple case of personal preference

We hope you have found this Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison useful and you now have a better idea of what each prediction exchange offers. If you were expecting us to give a cold hard conclusion, then sadly we can’t. The reality here is that Kalshi and Polymarket are quite similar in what they offer - this applies for their prediction markets, usability, payment fees, and transparency. As a result, we do not think that there is a clear winner.

Kalshi could currently be the better choice for mobile accessibility, but this will only hold true until Polymarket fully releases its Android app. Alternatively, if you prefer a simpler fee structure, Polymarket could be the pick. However, when you make trades at Kalshi, the fees are automatically displayed anyway. Lastly, Polymarket does have a little more sway towards global predictions, whereas Kalshi has a little more US emphasis, so that could be a consideration. Either way, if you want to give them a try, you can click the banners we have on this page to get signed up.

Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQs