Australian financial and media regulators have started to take notice of the prediction market boom in the United States. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow American users to trade on nearly anything, and one of the recently popular markets has been the upcoming Australian election.
While the Australian House election is not until 2028, it has already started to draw real action on Kalshi. Users can even trade on what the current Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, will say in a given week.
Australian Regulators are Concerned
The sports betting boom in the United States kicked off in 2018, and while that shift was massive, the rise of prediction markets has been even more explosive. The growth of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has forced foreign countries to take notice, as they may be next in the prediction market wave.
Australian regulators have been closely watching the U.S. market, and they are concerned that citizens may already be tapped into the exchange world. Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket are legal in Australia, but according to numerous experts, both are relatively easy to access with a VPN.
Martin Thomas, the CEO of the Alliance for Gambling Reform, believes prediction markets will arrive in Australia very soon, and that government officials will be well behind the eight ball when it comes to prediction policy.
A spokesperson for Kalshi has stated that no trading can be conducted from within Australia. Kalshi is prohibited for residents in more than 50 jurisdictions, and Australia is on the list. The Australian Communications and Media Authority has also mandated that internet providers block access to Polymarket, claiming it operates as a gambling service without a proper gaming license.
The Irony of the Ban
Even though Kalshi and Polymarket are banned within Australia, users outside the country are still actively trading on Australian elections, culture, and sports. Kalshi is currently offering a market on the country’s unemployment rate at the end of May.
The major Australian market on the platform is who will win the House election in 2028. The Australian Labor Party is trading with the highest likelihood of winning at 48%, followed by the Liberal-National Coalition at 47% and the Australian Greens at 7%.
Earlier in May, Kalshi was accepting trades on specific words Prime Minister Albanese might say when answering questions in parliament. Some of those words included Iran, TAFE, Trump, tax cuts, and healthcare. Polymarket has also leaned into the Australian markets, offering users the chance to trade on whether Albanese will be out of his role by June or December.
Kalshi and Polymarket may make their way into Australia in the future, but they are going to have to jump through significant hoops with regulators standing in the way. For now, Australian markets will have to suffice for the platforms and the U.S. users trading on them.
The future of prediction markets in Australia will likely come down to how quickly regulators move and how aggressively platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket push for entry. If the United States continues to set the tone, it’s only a matter of time before Australian users demand legal access rather than relying on VPNs and workarounds.
Expect a drawn-out battle between exchanges seeking legitimacy and regulators trying to protect existing frameworks with no prediction platforms. Whether prediction markets eventually launch as a regulated product or remain in a gray area, one thing is clear: the appetite is already there, and it is not going away throughout the entire world.