Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon on Saturday night when he faces Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329, and prediction markets aren't convinced the former two division champion will have a successful comeback.
The fight marks the return of the biggest superstar in UFC history after years away from competition. It has also become one of the most heavily traded combat sports markets on Kalshi, with more than $23 million in trading volume ahead of fight night.
Here's a look at the market, the matchup, and where prediction traders are placing their money.
Kalshi Traders Are Fading McGregor
According to Kalshi, McGregor enters fight night with just a 30 percent chance of defeating Holloway. His odds have dropped four percentage points since Thursday's press conferences as traders continue backing Holloway.
McGregor appears to be in tremendous physical shape, but the market is placing more weight on his age and lengthy layoff than his appearance. At 38 years old and returning after several years away, traders have plenty of questions about whether he can still perform at an elite level.
A $10 trade on McGregor would return $30.77 if he wins, making him one of the more intriguing underdogs on the board.
Meanwhile, Holloway carries a 70 percent chance to win, with a successful $10 trade returning just $13.99. While Holloway deserves to be favored, there isn't much value at that price considering McGregor's championship pedigree and ability to deliver in massive moments.
The atmosphere is going to be electric in Las Vegas on Saturday night, and you have to factor this into the trading equation. Both fighters have been in big spots, but McGregor is more equipped to handle everything that will come with the moment.
He has spoke about how he has a lot to prove to himself, so there is no denying that he will be prepared come Saturday night.
Fight Preview
The two first met in 2013, when McGregor defeated Holloway by unanimous decision before either fighter became a UFC superstar.
This matchup is much different. Holloway enters as one of the sport's most active and durable fighters, while McGregor returns after an extended absence with questions surrounding his timing and conditioning.
McGregor's clearest path to victory is an early finish. His striking remains among the best in MMA history, and if he can control the pace in the opening rounds, he has the power to end the fight at any moment.
For Holloway, the game plan is simple. Push the pace, extend the fight, and force McGregor to work deep into the championship rounds, where activity and cardio become major advantages.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
You can never count out Conor McGregor. His striking is elite, and fighting at 170 pounds should allow him to compete without a difficult weight cut.
Still, Holloway deserves to be favored based on recent activity and his ability to fight at a relentless pace for five rounds.
If Holloway survives the early rounds, the fight begins to swing in his favor. McGregor's best chance is to land something significant before Holloway settles into his rhythm.
From a prediction markets perspective, however, McGregor offers the better value. At just a 30 percent implied probability, traders are giving one of the greatest fighters in UFC history a legitimate underdog price. Whether that proves accurate will be one of the biggest storylines of UFC 329.