The US Open begins on Thursday, and one prediction markets trader has built several sizeable positions on four golfers in the field. You might expect them to be backing elite players like Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy on Kalshi, but instead they're taking shots on a group of longshots.
The trader has more than $4,500 combined on four golfers to win the US Open: Jacob Bridgeman, Corey Conners, Joaquin Niemann, and Harris English.
Scheffler has a chance to become just the seventh golfer in history to complete the career Grand Slam, but this Kalshi trader is hoping one of these picks can spoil the party for the world's number one golfer.
Jacob Bridgeman
The trader's largest position is $1,508 on Jacob Bridgeman, which would pay out $697.7K if he wins. Bridgeman is only 26 years old, but he has posted some impressive results in 2026.
He finished fourth at the Sony Open in Hawaii and won the Genesis Invitational in February. However, his performances in the majors have not been nearly as strong.
Bridgeman tied for 41st at the Masters Tournament. That's understandable considering how difficult Augusta National can be, but he followed it up by missing the cut at the PGA Championship.
The trader is likely hoping Bridgeman gets off to a hot start so the position can be sold at a much higher price during the tournament.
Corey Conners
Corey Conners is the trader's second-largest position. They have $1,254 on the Canadian golfer, which would return $627.2K with a victory.
Conners is a recognizable name on tour because of his experience, but he hasn't played his best golf this season. He missed the cut at both the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the RBC Canadian Open.
One of the keys to winning the US Open is entering the tournament in good form. Conners has missed a cut and posted finishes of 53rd and 55th in recent events, making this position one of the more surprising trades in the portfolio.
Joaquin Niemann
Joaquin Niemann has spent this season competing on LIV Golf, where he picked up a victory in Korea. However, his most recent major championship performance wasn't particularly encouraging.
The trader has $1,229 on Niemann, which would turn into $390.9K if he wins the tournament. While an outright victory seems unlikely, a strong opening round could create an opportunity to sell the position for a profit.
Harris English
The final position is Harris English, with the trader investing $518. A win would return $232K, but that outcome feels like a long shot.
English has the ability to contend and finish inside the top 10 when he's playing his best golf, but we haven't seen that level consistently this season.
He finished 30th at the Masters and 18th at the PGA Championship. His best result of the year was a fourth-place finish at the RBC Heritage.
English is now 36 years old, and age may not be working in his favor. He showed flashes of strong form last season with a win and a runner-up finish, but it's been nearly a year since he put together a truly dominant weekend.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Longshots can be attractive plays on prediction markets because a golfer doesn't necessarily need to win for a position to become profitable. If one of these players gets off to a strong start, the sell value could rise substantially.
The risk, however, is significant. If these golfers aren't near the top of the leaderboard after the opening round, it's difficult to envision any of them making a late tournament charge like proven stars such as Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy.