Kalshi users are being drawn to the Pro Basketball Champion prediction market, which now has more than $200 million in contract purchases.
According to the platform’s website, no market generated more contract purchases than the NBA-centered one involving the future NBA Finals winner. Only one other market registered even half of the $211.8 million in trading volume at the time of writing.
Prices and probabilities
Kalshi, the leading prediction platform in America, had the Thunder as the favorite to win the upcoming championship since they won the 2024-25 Finals over the Indiana Pacers in seven games. They still lead the board, although they are sliding.
Led by back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder shot out to a 2-1 lead over the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. Their recent dominance and series advantage ended up giving them a 60.5 percent probability to win the championship throughout the weekend.
Sunday night’s series-tying loss had a substantial impact on the market. OKC dropped to 48 percent probability, while the Spurs climbed to 27 percent. The New York Knicks, who have a 3-0 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, are also up to 27 percent after being at 15 percent just one week ago. The Cavs have less than a one percent chance. Here’s a look at how much $10 worth of winning contracts would pay for each team.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: $20.41
- San Antonio Spurs: $37.04
- New York Knicks: $37.04
- Cleveland Cavaliers: $1,000
Tracking the money
Before any of the four NBA teams remaining have a chance to compete for the world championship, they have to advance out of the conference finals.
The Thunder find themselves with a 62 percent chance to win the Western Conference Finals, which is now effectively a best-of-three with the series tied 2-2. The Spurs are at 38 percent after being at 30 percent just before tip-off in Game 4 on Sunday. The Spurs were briefly favored to win the series the day after they stole Game 1 on the road, although they only got to 50.5 percent probability. $30.1 million in total has been traded in this market.
Over in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks have a 98 percent chance to beat the Cavaliers and advance to the Finals. Even that could be deemed harsh on the Knicks, as no team in NBA history. has ever recovered from a 3-0 deficit.
Kalshi users ultimately believe that the Knicks will complete the series sweep on Monday night, giving the New Yorkers a 56 percent chance to win Game 4. A total of $37.7 million has been traded in the series winner market.
Kalshi’s most popular prediction markets
The $211.8 million in trades placed in the Pro Basketball Champion market reflects all of the activity since the market opened last July. The only other nine-figure market on Kalshi is the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee, which generated $113.3 million in trading volume. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the current leader at 24 percent probability.
The third-largest market on Kalshi, and the second-largest in sports, is the Stanley Cup Champion. The Las Vegas Golden Knights are the team of the moment, having surged from 13 percent one week ago to 44 percent now that they are up three games to zero against the excellent Colorado Avalanche.