Brendan Sorsby received bad news from the NCAA on Tuesday. The organization denied Sorsby's request to have his athletic eligibility reinstated for the 2026 season following his gambling violations.
There's still a chance Sorsby could play for Texas Tech, but he'll have to win through the legal system, and that outcome isn't likely. In the meantime, Kalshi and other prediction markets users have been actively trading on whether Sorsby will declare for the NFL supplemental draft, which would be the probable next step if a judge doesn't rule in his favor next week.
Sorsby's Gambling Violations
The NCAA has a zero-tolerance policy for athletes gambling on any sport, let alone games in which they participate. That's exactly what Sorsby did as a freshman at Indiana in 2022. Sorsby was a backup quarterback for the Hoosiers and wanted to feel connected to his teammates while watching from the sidelines, so he bet on the games. He only wagered on Indiana, but that detail didn't help his case.
The Hoosiers went 4-8 both straight up and against the spread that season, meaning Sorsby not only got caught but also lost money in the process. Between 2022 and 2025, the quarterback placed thousands of bets on a wide range of events, from Turkish football to Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Cincinnati, where Sorsby played in 2025, allegedly knew about the gambling issues but never reported anything to the NCAA. Sorsby recently checked into an intensive inpatient facility, which his team described as a meaningful step forward in what will be a long recovery process.
Next Steps for Sorsby
Last week, Sorsby filed a lawsuit against the NCAA seeking a temporary injunction, which would grant him eligibility for his final collegiate season. The hearing is scheduled for June 1 in Lubbock County district court.
The court's proximity to the school gives Sorsby his best chance to win, but if the ruling is based strictly on NCAA guidelines, he has virtually no chance of playing college football again. Sorsby's legal team plans to argue that the quarterback had a clinical condition he couldn't control. I doubt Sorsby will win, and Kalshi users seem to share that view.
Kalshi Users Trading on Sorsby and Tech
The gambling allegations first surfaced in early June, and at that time, the odds of Sorsby declaring for the supplemental draft were trading at 38%. The numbers have climbed steadily since then, and the market is now trading at a 66% chance. Sorsby's case was originally supposed to be heard by Philip Hays, who earned both his undergraduate and law degrees from Texas Tech. Hays recused himself from the case to avoid any potential conflict of interest.
Even at the current price, a $10 trade on Sorsby declaring would pay out $16, which is a fair return. NCAA athletes who gamble haven't fared well historically, so in my opinion, this is the side of the market to back. Sorsby's future is in limbo, and so is Texas Tech's. You can trade on the Red Raiders' win total on Kalshi as well, and users are projecting them to have a strong season despite the quarterback uncertainty.
Texas Tech is forecasted to have a 70% chance of going undefeated this season. The Red Raiders also hold a 46% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship, more than three times the odds of any other team in the conference. Utah and BYU sit second and third on the list with 14% and 13% chances, respectively.