Argentina has advanced to the knockout stage after a fantastic performance from Lionel Messi against Austria on Monday. Messi scored his 17th and 18th career World Cup goals, breaking the all-time tournament scoring record and giving traders on prediction markets plenty to celebrate.
Messi missed a penalty kick wide right early in the match, but he broke the record late in the first half and added another goal in stoppage time. He surpassed Miroslav Klose, who previously held the record with 16 World Cup goals.
Since breaking the record, Messi has been one of the most heavily traded names on Kalshi across several World Cup markets. Here is a breakdown of the prediction markets where Messi is currently generating the most attention.
Golden Boot Winner
The Golden Boot is awarded to the player who scores the most goals during the World Cup, and Lionel Messi is currently the favorite on prediction markets. Messi has a 40% chance to win the Golden Boot on Kalshi, up 21% following his two-goal performance against Austria.
Messi recorded a hat trick in Argentina's opening match against Algeria, giving him five goals through his first two games of the tournament. His biggest challenger is Kylian Mbappe, who scored twice against Senegal in France's opening match.
My only concern with backing Messi in this market is the possibility that he rests in Argentina's final group-stage match against Jordan. Argentina could likely handle Jordan with a rotated lineup, and resting Messi before the knockout stage may be the smart move.
However, if Messi does play, he could easily add multiple goals and further separate himself from the rest of the field in the Golden Boot race.
Golden Ball Winner
The Golden Ball is awarded to the World Cup's most outstanding player, and it is difficult to make a strong case for anyone other than Lionel Messi at this point. He has scored five goals in two matches, and Argentina has looked like one of the strongest teams in the tournament.
Messi is currently trading at a 36% chance to win the award. Unlike the Golden Boot, this trophy is not solely based on goals scored, which makes the race more competitive. Historically, it is also usually awarded to a player whose team reaches at least the semifinals.
Argentina is a legitimate title contender, but there are several players who could challenge Messi. Mbappe sits at a 25% chance to win the award, and if France makes a deeper run than Argentina, he could quickly become the favorite.
Lionel Messi Total Goals
Another market attracting significant action is Messi's total goal tally for the tournament. With five goals already, traders are expecting him to continue finding the back of the net throughout the World Cup.
Messi currently has a 97% chance of reaching eight or more goals. However, the probabilities begin to tighten beyond that mark. He has just a 50% chance of reaching nine goals and a 45% chance of reaching 10 goals.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Lionel Messi appears poised to add even more goals and accolades before this World Cup is over. If Argentina makes a deep run, it would not be surprising to see him capture both the Golden Boot and Golden Ball awards.
Argentina's championship hopes depend heavily on Messi continuing to perform at an elite level, and through the first two matches, he has done exactly that.