Tech is headed in a very specific direction thanks to the evolution of AI, and Kalshi traders are taking advantage of it. Last year 447,000 tech employees were let go, per analysis conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Kalshi users are predicting even more will be handed a pink slip in 2026.
The number of tech layoffs has climbed exponentially over the years, with data showing tech layoffs hanging around 167,000 back in 2023. Since then, more than 50,000 positions have been erased at huge tech companies such as Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and others, with job loss in the field climbing an astronomical 300,000 in three years.
Why Kalshi Traders Could Be Right About 2026 Tech Layoffs
The numbers don’t lie, and the rise of AI has a lot to do with it. To this point, AI has caused heads to roll in numerous fields, and tech has not been immune to the changes.
More layoffs could be coming in tech, too. Global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas issued a report in early August, detailing that tech cut almost 10,000 jobs in July, for a grand total of 149,023 on the year.
That pace provides a 67% increase from the 89,251 cuts announced at the same time in 2025, while tech cuts lead all industries, with the next closest being Transportation (41,748).
The question isn’t if more tech layoffs are coming, but if they will maintain the current torrid pace.
Why the Tech Layoff Market Could Be Wrong
Even the sharpest prediction markets expert can be wrong. It isn’t often that a market priced at 91.5% would miss the mark that badly, but one user recently posted an $8,000 wager on the “no” side of the event market, so it’s fair to consider the other side.
The counter point to Kalshi traders emphatically agreeing that tech layoffs in 2026 will trump what we saw in 2025? The fact that there’s a lot of money to be made by going against the grain.
Overall, U.S. layoffs are actually 41% lower through July than they were in 2025. Another interesting nugget is the plan for an increase in hirings. The Challenger Report noted the hiring rate is 25% above where it was in 2025, which might suggest that the AI boon is actually altering the labor market, rather than completely eradicating it.
More importantly, however, is the fact that Kalshi traders are at the mercy of semantics. The original Kalshi event market for “More tech layoffs in 2026 than 2025?” was listed with an incorrect underlying value, and will be judged solely by data verified by FRED (Federal Reserve Bank) and BLS.
The point? Headlines, rumors, and context could confuse the market and keep it as inflated as it is, while a closer look (and the actual final numbers submitted by FRED/BLS) may not ultimately align with conjecture.
Tech Layoffs 2026 Prediction: Is There Value Betting No?
This event market opened at just 61% in favor of “yes”, and the price is now all the way up at 91.5%. That, along with the rise in tech layoffs, suggests beating the 447,000 number is in the cards.
Still, the best bet may no longer be with the logical side. After all, every $10 bet on in favor of more 2026 tech layoffs only brings back $10.90, while a bet the other way pays out $119.04.
The other way to look at this is that AI probably isn’t going anywhere. While there have been a lot of layoffs, companies could realize they actually do need real people, but they simply end up reframing what those roles look like.