The battle between the NCAA and prediction markets is heating up again. As platforms like Kalshi continue expanding their sports offerings, NCAA President Charlie Baker has renewed calls for federal regulators to intervene.
The organization believes prediction markets tied to college sports create many of the same integrity concerns as traditional sportsbooks, even if they operate under a different regulatory framework.
Brendan Sorsby was the latest example of this, and the NCAA wants to limit these issues moving forward. The rapid growth of prediction markets make this very difficult.
NCAA Wants Action
The NCAA is asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to pause college sports event contracts until stronger oversight is in place. According to Baker, the rapid growth of these markets has outpaced the rules designed to protect student athletes and preserve the integrity of college competition.
Prediction markets don’t follow the same standard as sportsbooks since they’re not regulated on the state level, meaning it’s easy to have more offerings.
While prediction market companies argue they offer federally regulated event contracts rather than traditional sports betting, the NCAA sees little distinction when users are trading on the outcome of college games.
College athletes have already dealt with increased harassment stemming from legalized sports betting over the past several years. The NCAA believes adding another avenue for fans to financially speculate on games could increase that pressure even further.
Additionally, there have been countless examples of players betting on their own games. Sorsby was one of the biggest, but this has been happening consistently since the inception of regulated sports betting.
Challenge for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity over the past year.
Kalshi has expanded into sports, politics, entertainment, and economic events, while competitors continue introducing new contracts across a wide variety of categories. Sports trading has become one of the industry's fastest growing segments as more users look for alternatives to traditional sportsbooks.
That growth has naturally attracted more attention from regulators, sports leagues, and governing bodies and there will be a time when prediction markets face heavy regulation. Yet, they’re outpacing the regulations.
The NCAA has consistently argued that college athletics deserve a higher level of protection because student athletes are not professional players. Even before its latest request to the CFTC, the organization publicly opposed prediction markets involving individual athletes, including proposed contracts tied to transfer portal decisions/
Those earlier disputes helped lay the groundwork for the NCAA's broader push against college sports markets altogether and Baker has been the leader of the charge.
The NCAA's latest comments come at a time when prediction markets are already navigating legal and regulatory questions across multiple states.
Several state regulators have challenged whether sports event contracts should be treated differently than sports betting, while prediction market operators continue arguing they fall under federal oversight through the CFTC.
If federal regulators were to adopt the NCAA's recommendation, it could temporarily remove one of the industry's fastest growing categories. For now, though, as we approach football season, college sports markets remain available as the conversation continues.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
For traders, the NCAA's latest stance is another reminder that regulation remains one of the biggest storylines in the space.
Political markets have dominated headlines over the past year, but sports contracts continue drawing significant volume and new users. This is where the growth lies because sports never stop.
The NCAA has made its position clear. It believes college sports prediction markets should not continue without stronger safeguards in place.
The safeguards will inevitably come, but growth for exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket, is making it difficult.