The future is bright for prediction markets, and it’s not just hyperbole coming from a Kalshi or Polymarket CEO. Per reports, research firm Bernstein signaled serious belief in the industry recently, raising their volume forecast from $1 trillion to $10 trillion.
The ceiling has officially been raised on a rapidly rising prediction market industry. Robinhood's CEO set the table for ambitious projections last February, but Bernstein's latest forecast illustrates how far the industry has come, and how much more room it has to grow.
Bernstein Values Prediction Markets as a $10 Trillion Industry
Prediction markets fought hard just to prove they belong in the world of sports betting, but now they’re slowly taking over. No longer content with just a piece of the pie, top prediction markets like Kalshi are starting to flex their muscle in competition with the most reputable sportsbooks.
Kalshi has certainly dominated the prediction market scene, holding roughly 60% of the market volume going into August. Novig and Polymarket have done well in their one right, but are still very much behind the industry leader.
The healthy competition plays into a positive long-term forecast. The industry accrued an estimated $410 billion in overall volume in 2026, and projections have the arrow pointing up to $10 trillion by 2035.
This is a big change from Bernstein’s initial $1 trillion projection, which was made as recently as April.
Prediction Markets Could Surge Without Sports Betting
One of the biggest drivers of the positive prediction market outlook? The fact that prediction markets might be moving beyond sports. That’s an interesting reality considering Novig’s provocative “just sports” marketing ploy, but the industry as a whole is poised to see a huge jump in non-sports trading volume.
Financial contracts reportedly make up just 12% of overall volume dating back to 2025, but that number is expected to increase to 49% over the next decade. With that increase comes the casualty of heavy sports volume, which Bernstein’s forecast projects to endure a fall from 61% volume to roughly 38%.
The idea isn’t just that people will wager on sports events less. It’s that everything else prediction markets reach into will simply overtake what will become a smaller piece of a very big pie.
Bernstein’s projection considers the impact of cryptocurrency, equities, commodities, and other financial outcomes. This conjoins with emerging news that Kalshi is establishing roots in Wall Street and broadening their overall scope in the financial industry.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The $10 trillion number is a headline grabber, but just as interesting is the projection that sports volume will go down as alternative trading rises exponentially.
The underlying message is more important, however. Prediction markets aren’t just overtaking the sports betting industry or merging with established financial institutions. They’re doing both.
Sports contracts have proven that they can draw interest, generate volume, and attract mainstream consumers, but the long-term goal is clearly to go far beyond that.
If prediction markets can branch out to the point where they’re becoming not just a place to place bets, but the destination for trading information itself, they ultimately become knowledge and conversation hubs.
Regardless, a $10 trillion forecast is about as good as it gets. Short of legal and regulatory obstacles slowing down the pace, the prediction market industry is clearly slated for a massive and steady incline.