Prediction markets appear to have crossed an important line with one of the most valuable audiences in American sports. New Optimove research found that 84% of U.S. NFL bettors surveyed have heard of prediction markets, while 60% say they plan to trade, buy, or sell event contracts this year. Those numbers suggest platforms may have a much different challenge heading into the 2026 NFL season than simply introducing people to the concept.
The Optimove Insights survey included 926 U.S. NFL bettors and was conducted in August, just before the NFL season. That makes this a particularly interesting group because these are already highly engaged sports consumers. For prediction market companies, turning that familiarity into trading activity could be one of this season's biggest opportunities.
Worth a Read: Sports Could Force Prediction Markets to Pick an Identity
Prediction Markets Have an Awareness Advantage
An 84% awareness rate is difficult to dismiss as a niche audience finding a niche product. Only 16% of respondents said they had not heard of prediction markets. Optimove estimates that roughly 778 people in its 926-person sample already recognized the category.
Awareness does not necessarily mean those people understand everything about event contracts. Someone may recognize Kalshi or prediction markets without understanding contract pricing, order books, or settlement. Still, platforms start from a much better position when you don't have to explain the entire concept before convincing someone to try it.
Six in 10 Say They Plan to Trade
The bigger number may be the 60% who said they intend to trade event contracts this year. Stated intentions do not guarantee those people will actually open accounts and trade, something Optimove acknowledges in its report. Even so, six in 10 respondents expressing interest shows how large the potential crossover audience has become.
The survey leaves platforms with several important questions:
- How many interested users actually make their first trade?
- Which platform gets that first transaction?
- How quickly do those users return?
- Do NFL-focused traders eventually explore other categories?
- Can platforms keep them active after football season?
Those questions matter because awareness alone does not build a lasting customer base. The next stage is turning curiosity into repeat activity.
The NFL Audience is Becoming a Major Battleground
The timing makes the research even more interesting. Prediction market platforms have been aggressively building sports products while leagues and teams consider increasingly valuable commercial partnerships. The NBA is reportedly discussing agreements with several platforms, while the NFL has remained considerably more cautious.
That hesitation has not stopped NFL fans from discovering the products themselves. If 60% of this already-engaged audience really intends to participate, platforms do not necessarily need an official NFL partnership to find significant demand. Instead, companies could compete through product design, market selection, pricing, promotions, and overall user experience.
Keeping Traders Could Be Harder Than Finding Them
Optimove's report argues that companies should shift more attention from education toward conversion and retention. We think that distinction matters because prediction markets have spent considerable time explaining what event contracts are. An 84% awareness rate suggests that the job is increasingly being accomplished, at least among NFL-focused consumers.
The harder challenge begins after someone arrives. A smooth first trade might bring a user through the door, but keeping that person engaged beyond the NFL calendar requires a broader product. Politics, economics, entertainment, and other sports could determine whether an NFL acquisition becomes a year-round prediction market trader.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The 84% figure stands out, but we think the 60% intent number tells the more important story. Prediction markets no longer appear to be fighting simply for recognition among NFL consumers. They are competing over an audience that increasingly expects to participate.
Now comes the difficult part. Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and other platforms need to turn that interest into actual trades and eventually repeat customers. If they can do that during the NFL season, sports could become an even bigger gateway into the broader prediction market industry.