Prediction markets generated more than $1 billion in NFL contract purchases during the first week of the 2026 season, according to analytics platform DeFi Rate.
Kalshi provided an overwhelming majority of the contract volume, reporting $984 million in trades that were heavily driven by combos. Polymarket’s global platform accounted for $28 million in NFL contracts, and its American hub produced $23.2 million during the published five-day period.
NFL comes back with a bang
Week 1 was a perfect reminder of why the NFL is king in American sports.
The season began with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, which ended in another victory for the defending champions. Offenses around the league set a Week 1 record for points output, and Sunday finished with a primetime divisional upset as the New York Giants beat the Dallas Cowboys.
All of those moments combined to help the top prediction markets produce at more than $1 billion in combined trades. That doesn’t account for competitors such as Underdog, PrizePicks, Fanatics, and numerous others that will have inevitably pushed the true total even higher.
Kalshi’s dominant share of NFL trading is one of the clear takeaways from the newly released data. But just as significantly, combos are beginning to dominate sport event contracts.
Combos dominate NFL prediction markets
DeFi Rate reported that $445.9 million of Kalshi’s $983.4 million in NFL trades were submitted as combos, the prediction market equivalent of sportsbook parlays. These combos only involved NFL outcomes as opposed to a combination of NFL and other prediction markets.
The Closing Line reported that parlays accounted for approximately one-third of all money wagered at American sportsbooks. Kalshi outpaced that number with its NFL combos, which represented 45.3% of all money traded on football games from Sept. 7-13.
Direct contracts related to game outcomes and props narrowly beat combos by generating $495.9 million (50.4%) in trades. “Other” related contracts contributed the final $41.6 million (4.2%).
Where was the money going?
The first two games of the season ended up generating the most trading interest at Kalshi and Polymarket.
The San Francisco 49ers’ showdown with the Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia, led all contests with a $117.7 million trading volume at the two platforms. Close behind was the Patriots-Seahawks season-opener, which hit $111.5 million in volume.
None of Sunday’s games came close to matching either of the first two in volume. An NFC North battle between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers narrowly claimed the bronze medal with a $41.7 million volume. America’s Game of the Week between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles was just off the mark at $41.2 million in volume.
The game that drew the least support from traders — excluding Monday night’s matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs — was the New York Jets’ battle with the Tennessee Titans. The $8.9 million cumulative volume was only 7.5% of the 49ers-Rams total.
This was only one week, but it set the stage for what DeFi Rate previously predicted will be an NFL season that produces about $57 billion in combined trades.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction markets are heavily influenced by sports event contracts. The extreme popularity of the NFL in America always meant that football season was going to be pivotal to prediction markets, which is being confirmed in real-time. This is the NFL season with prediction markets firmly in the national spotlight, and tracking their growth — amid an onslaught of regulatory scrutiny — will be an important reference when discussing the prediction industry’s potential.