The 2026 NFL Top 100 list is nearing its end. There are just five more slots to announce, with 95 players already being voted into the list, and the top-5 beginning to be revealed starting on August 31st. Kalshi traders have the #1 spot all but locked up, however.
That’s if you take Kalshi trades as gospel, of course. Kalshi traders have pushed former Cleveland Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett to an alarming 88%, with last year’s NFL MVP Matthew Stafford being his next closest challenger at just 6%.
Why Myles Garrett is a Slam Dunk Bet
Garrett isn’t a shocking pick to be the #1 ranked player by the NFL 100 voting panel. The former Browns stud pass rusher broke the single-season sack record last year, registering 23 quarterback takedowns during the 2025 campaign.
That astonishing NFL record elevates Garrett’s standing, while the star defender has been properly respected throughout his career. He’s already claimed two Defensive Player of the Year awards, while he’s cracked the top-10 in the NFL Top 100 list (8th and 5th) in each of the last two seasons.
In addition to his stat-stuffing sack season of a year ago, Garrett’s physicality, athleticism, and sustained dominance have made him revered in the league.
There’s No Value in Backing Garrett
Garrett has the odds in his favor, and most traders at prediction markets clearly think he’s got this in the bag. That really isn’t in question at this point, but what is open for debate is if he’s now worth your time and money.
Logic says no, as Garrett still isn’t technically guaranteed a win, and his chances of winning make him a less than attractive bet for anyone looking to get in on the action now. After all, a $100 wager only brings back $105.
It’s also worth noting that while Garrett is clearly inching closer to a big win, he’s never finished higher than 5th in the NFL Top 100. This also historically has not been a defensive player’s time to shine, as just two players (J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald) have earned the right to be #1 on the NFL Top 100 list.
Three Legit Contenders Are Still Live
Again, this isn’t really about betting against Garrett. It’s more about the fact that there’s no longer actual value in betting in favor of him.
It doesn’t take long to realize Garrett still has some stiff competition, either. There’s a guy in Bijan Robinson that some view as the top overall running back in the league, there’s breakout star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, there’s top dual threat passer Josh Allen, and there’s the reigning league MVP in Matthew Stafford.
Garrett’s dominance in 2025 may have the leg up, but it’s worth noting that his team wasn’t very successful despite his accolades. Stafford, meanwhile, put up wild offensive numbers and got his team to the playoffs, while the top-ranked player in the NFL Top 100 has been the previous year’s MVP winner six different times.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
This isn’t about declaring a value bet as the winner or saying Garrett won’t win. It’s about realizing a market has seemingly already resolved itself despite the winner being far from declared.
Garrett is probably going to win, and a record-setting season is the main reason why. However, the only thing left to do now is to bet on someone else. Stafford has the best case to keep him from cashing 88% of Kalshi traders, and you can double your money on $100 investments.
You can entertain $100 bets on Bijan ($505), JSN ($3k), or Allen ($4k), just the same. There’s also the option in simply betting on it not being Garrett, which could turn $100 into $257.