Another Polymarket user and KPMG employee is under investigation for possible prediction market insider trading.
Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, discovered 19 accounts that won 41 of 42 trades that involved KPMG-audited companies. The trades generated over $22,000 in winnings, with a 98% win rate drawing attention.
Beyond the staggering win rate, the accounts all had one thing in common; they had all been previously audited by large finance firm KPMG.
19 Polymarket Accounts Win 41 of 42 KPMG-Affiliated Trades
It’s unknown if the KPMG employee in question is actually tied to all 19 accounts in question, or even if they actually committed any insider trading.
A 98% win rate is remarkably high, but technically not impossible to accomplish. Converting $22,000 in trades also isn’t an astronomical number when considering potential earnings at major prediction markets, either.
Still, Bubblemaps traced the activity across the 19 accounts and connected it to KPMG-audited entities. Those companies include Home Depot, DoorDash, Wells Fargo, and General Mills.
The trades began in November of 2025 and were executed over the span of several months. Using on-chain transfer tracking, Bubblemaps was able to trace the activity to a complex network of transactions, suggesting all 19 accounts were being dictated by one person or group.
KPMG Employee is Under Federal Investigation
The unnamed KPMG employee is presently under federal investigation, with authorities trying to gauge if they traded on a contract dealing with a specific company's chances of beating Wall Street’s consensus quarterly earnings estimate.
No connection has been made between Bubblemaps recent findings and news that a KPMG employee is under federal investigation. However, the dots are starting to connect, even if Bubblemaps has publicly stated their findings don’t prove any Polymarket insider trading occurred.
KPMG has gone on record to say that they have a “zero tolerance” for employees trading based on privileged client intel, while the firm has also reportedly beefed up their monitoring reach as prediction markets have been on the rise.
Polymarket has stayed true to its word on these types of matters, with the site claiming it regularly defers to law enforcement.
Difficult Optics for Prediction Markets
Winning 98% of one’s trades doesn’t automatically prove guilt, nor does cashing in on $22,000 of winnings via trades. It does sound the alarm for Polymarket, however, while the use of numerous accounts and the tentative KPMG connection also raises some eyebrows.
Nothing has been officially proven, but the optics continue to dim the light on prediction markets from a legal and regulatory perspective.
Polymarket and other major prediction market platforms continue to answer for sketchy decisions from people with inside information, which could prompt the sites (or lawmakers) to ensure certain markets are stripped from prediction market platforms altogether.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Usually when something seems to be too good to be true, it is. In this case, there are too many dots connecting. While Polymarket hasn’t announced anything publicly and Bubblemaps isn’t outwardly assigning blame, the win rate, number of accounts, and connection to KPMG paint a pretty clear picture.
The big takeaway isn’t that someone may have committed insider trading on a prediction market platform again, however. It’s that this continues to be a glaring threat to the industry’s integrity.
While it means little in the short-term, continued run-ins with abusive traders could very well mean major change is due from a regulatory perspective. That’s not a bad thing, though, as prediction markets will ultimately only benefit from having a safer and more trustworthy product.