Popular prediction platform Polymarket severed its partnership with political outcast George Santos after reports suggested he engaged in insider trading to profit via prediction markets.
NPR reported on Tuesday that Santos, a former U.S. Rep. from New York who served three months in prison in 2025, was under investigation by the Department of Justice for insider trading. He is said to have predicted his own absence at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February.
Profiting from insider trading
Santos had been a paid affiliate of Polymarket, a prediction operator that offers contracts across industries such as politics, sports, entertainment, finance, and weather.
Tuesday’s news revealed accusations that Santos purchased shares of a market that would pay holders if he attended the President’s address. Santos himself appeared to confirm he planned to be in the audience in a video posted on X (formerly Twitter) the day before the event, where he said he was “going to be there… in the gallery.”
“Yes” contracts in the market, valued as low as $.33 the day before the State of the Union, surged to $.76 the morning of the event.
Shareholders were left dismayed when Santos said several hours before the address that he would be watching from an airport television, indicating he had encountered travel issues.
“Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” Santos wrote on X.
In light of the reports, Santos’ post appears to have been an attempt to throw watchdogs off his trail.
Santos predicted his own absence
NPR reported that Kalshi detected Santos’ account had bought contracts that would only pay users if he did not show up at the State of the Union. The platform froze his account and reported him to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency which regulates licensed prediction operators, and the DOJ, triggering a pair of investigations.
Santos has a history of illegal activity. He was sentenced to seven years in prison for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in 2025 after a House committee found he had used campaign funds to purchase luxury items, cover travel costs, and make other personal expenditures. He was removed from the House after less than one year, making him just the sixth Representative to be expelled from Congress.
The 37-year-old was also found guilty of lying about his background during his political uprising. He falsely claimed he was Jewish, finished in the top 1% of his class at Baruch College, had a mother who worked in the World Trade Center during the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and grandparents who escaped the Holocaust.
Despite his history of wrongdoing and immoral behavior, President Trump commuted Santos’ sentence in Oct. 2025, claiming he was “horribly mistreated” by being forced to spend prolonged periods in solitary confinement.
Easy to manipulate markets
Kalshi and other prediction platforms strictly forbid insider trading.
When asked about the investigations, Santos replied that they were “news to him,” and that he would seek information from Kalshi’s co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, with whom he claimed to have a personal relationship, NPR reported.
On his podcast, “Doing Time with George Santos,” the New Yorker previously said that prediction markets were “easily manipulable.”
“I think it’s fun and you can make a little money and you can have fun with it, but just understand that there will always be advantaged players in this game and it’s very hard to understand who they are,” he said.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
More information will be revealed with time and further investigation. Santos’ untrustworthy history won’t do him any favors, and neither will the national wave of scrutiny involving insider trading at prediction platforms. Santos has not admitted to, nor has he been charged with, any wrongdoing.