The cascading momentum of prediction markets hit record highs in July, with the top three platforms producing $50.6 billion in trading volume.
Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi were responsible for reaching the total figure, according to data published on Sunday evening. That’s after the entire prediction industry generated $50.8 billion in trades just one month earlier.
Setting new records
According to The Block, the three leading operators grew 7.8% month-over-month, reaching just under $47 billion in notional trading volume in June.
Kalshi continued to lead the industry with $37.7 billion in accepted trades, up about 14% in June. Polymarket’s international platform fell 26% month-over-month to $7.9 billion, although its American hub rose 54% to $5 billion. Altogether, Polymarket posted $12.9 billion in volume, just over one-third of Kalshi’s total.
The Block’s data shows that, despite a trend of consistent growth, the leading prediction markets experienced a strong surge in activity during June and July. Further analysis suggested that this was tied to the FIFA World Cup, which took place from June 11 to July 19 in cities scattered around Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Polymarket US and Kalshi reported a combined trading volume above $6 billion just on the tournament winner.
Sports are the lifeblood
Prediction platforms were propelled into mass consciousness because of sports event contracts.
Although these platforms offer markets in finance, weather, pop culture, entertainment, politics, and other industries, sports have been the most popular. The wave of prediction market excitement began during the last NFL season and is cresting significantly higher than it was at this time last year.
The NFL regular-season opener will take place in just over a month on Sept. 9 in a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. The latest data from the World Cup months shows the impact of presenting traders with marquee sports events — not to mention that the midterm elections and popular markets in other industries will also be available.
Prediction markets growing despite scrutiny
The persistent growth of prediction markets in America has quickly presented a series of challenges to lawmakers, predominantly at the state level.
On July 31, New York Attorney General Letitia James led another rebuke of Kalshi and prediction markets, calling them sources of illegal gambling.
“New York’s gambling laws protect children from underage betting and help combat gambling addiction,” Attorney General James said while submitting the lawsuit. “No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple. By ignoring our laws, Kalshi is running an illegal operation and harming New Yorkers in the process. We are taking them to court to uphold our laws and protect New Yorkers.”
Numerous other states have also joined the effort to regulate federally-monitored prediction platforms, who do not need to receive state-level licensing to offer their markets to customers nationwide. Minnesota only recently had its state-wide ban on prediction markets overruled by a federal judge, who granted a preliminary injunction that blocked Gov. Tim Walz (D) from enforcing the prohibition.
Prediction markets remain extremely controversial with regulators — but as the data also shows, they are equally as popular with customers.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The World Cup is one of the most popular events worldwide. At the same time, the NFL season provides constant opportunities for customers to trade on games, player performances, the eventual Super Bowl winner, and much more. The league’s popularity will drive hordes of trades over the coming months, making the fall and winter a crucial period for determining the course of the prediction industry.