Polymarket is making some serious money, and its U.S. expansion is starting to pay off. The prediction market company says its annualized revenue has climbed past $1.8 billion, a pretty big jump from the $1 billion mark it passed back in June. That's a lot of growth in just a few months, especially for a company still finding its footing in the American market.
Polymarket shared the numbers with CNBC on Tuesday, November 10. Its U.S. exchange, which operates separately from its international platform, has seen trading activity take off since opening to more American customers earlier this year.
From $4 Billion to $14.5 Billion in Four Months
The numbers from Polymarket's U.S. exchange are hard to ignore. The platform opened more broadly to American traders in May, and activity picked up quickly. According to TickerTracker data reported by CNBC, here's how things have changed:
- June trading volume: More than $4 billion
- October trading volume: More than $14.5 billion
- Annualized revenue: More than $1.8 billion, up from over $1 billion in June
That's more than three times the monthly trading volume in just four months. One thing to note: annualized revenue isn't the same as actual revenue collected this year. It's a projection based on the company's current revenue pace.
Sports Are Bringing Traders Back for More
If you've followed prediction markets this year, you probably won't be surprised that sports are driving growth. The FIFA World Cup brought plenty of activity over the summer, and the NFL season has given traders something to follow every week. What's especially interesting is how popular Polymarket's Combo contracts have become.
These let traders combine several outcomes into one position, rather than making separate trades on each event. On Sunday alone, Combo contracts accounted for more than 70% of the platform's U.S. trading volume. That's a huge share of activity coming from one product type, and it gives us a pretty good idea of what traders are enjoying.
Polymarket Is Looking for Another $1 Billion
Apparently, bringing in more revenue isn't the only thing on Polymarket's agenda. The company has also started raising another $1 billion in funding, with a reported valuation of $21 billion. That's a remarkable number, given how many legal questions still surround prediction markets. Kalshi has also been raising substantial amounts of money.
While Robinhood continues building out its event-contract business. For Polymarket, another billion dollars could fund new products, bring in more customers, and help it compete with the growing number of companies entering the space. Investor interest is clearly high right now.
The CFTC Still Has Some Unanswered Questions
Not everything is going Polymarket's way, though. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating the company, including questions about its advertising practices and whether it complied with an earlier regulatory settlement.
Part of that investigation involves whether U.S. residents previously accessed Polymarket's international exchange despite restrictions established under the agreement. There's no outcome yet, but it's another issue the company will have to navigate as it expands its American business.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
We've seen plenty of big numbers from prediction markets this year, but Polymarket's latest revenue figures deserve attention. Going from an annualized revenue pace above $1 billion to more than $1.8 billion in a few months shows just how quickly things are moving. What stands out to us even more is the popularity of Combo contracts. When one product accounts for more than 70% of trading volume on a given day, you have to wonder how much of the company's future growth will depend on keeping those traders interested.
Of course, big trading numbers don't automatically mean everything is figured out. Polymarket still has regulatory issues to deal with, and competitors aren't exactly sitting around waiting for it to take over. Still, it's hard to look at these figures and not see a company gaining momentum. The real test will be whether Polymarket can turn this surge in activity into something that lasts beyond the next major sporting event.