One out of two traders in a specific section of Polymarket believe that Jesus Christ will return before GTA 6 is released to the public. The wildly popular GTA video game franchise released its last product, GTA V, in 2013. GTA VI has been rumored and scheduled for release a plethora of times since, yet the game is still not available. The newest scheduled release is set for September of this year.
What are the options?
Polymarket’s “What will happen before GTA VI?” prediction market includes contracts for eight different propositions, all of which have probabilities ranging from 49-56%. The most likely outcome is that GPT-6, OpenAI’s new model, will be released. Jesus Christ making his return for the first time in nearly 2,000 years is one of two outcomes at the bottom of the market, tied with Bitcoin hitting $1 million in value — 13.6 times higher than its price at the time of writing.
The market is simple. Traders who purchase “Yes” contracts, currently listed at $.49, will receive $1 for every contract if Jesus descends to Earth before GTA VI is released. They will not receive any winnings if developer studio Rockstar Games beats Jesus to the punch.
Will Jesus return before GTA VI?
GTA VI is widely believed to have cost $1-2 billion in development and marketing, making it one of the most expensive video games ever. GTA V generated nearly $10 billion and a record $1 billion in sales in just three days and has sold over 230 million copies worldwide. A total of $22.4 million in trades has been poured into the “What will happen before GTA VI” market, according to Polymarket’s insights. $11.5 million of that stemmed from the “Jesus Christ returns” outcome, by far the highest of all options.
Nearly 70 percent of chapters in the New Testament prophesied Jesus’ return, also known as the Second Coming. An estimated 30 percent of the world also follows the teachings of Christianity. Despite his worldwide following, Jesus already missed the first five discs of the GTA series, meaning that recent history is on the side of the Rated “M” game. The second most-popular outcome is Bitcoin reaching $1 million. The outcome with the lowest trading volume is “Another Pandemic,” which has a 51% probability.
Tracking probabilities and whales
The probability of Jesus making his return before GTA VI is released essentially hasn’t changed since last November, which was a very important time for the market. On Nov. 6, 2025, Polymarket only gave Jesus a 19% chance of making his way back to Earth before the new game dropped. The change spiked to 49% just 12 hours later and has never dropped below 48% in the time since.
User “YoniLoconozco” holds the most “Yes” shares in the market with 110,707.9, which is valued at $53,693.34 — up more than $3,000 from when they were purchased. “abrakababraa” has the most “No” shares with 33,979.4, which is valued at $17,499.41. They have made a slight profit after purchasing the contracts with an average price approximately $.50 above the current value.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
GTA 6 is scheduled to drop less than four months from now on Nov. 19. Mathematically speaking, Jesus ending his near-2,000-year absence in that time frame seems unlikely. That said, the newest GTA game has already been officially delayed twice since its initial launch target of around May 2025 and missed several other rumored target dates. Jesus warned his followers about the dangers of greed, so maybe it’s best to find a different market as a whole.