A Polymarket trader took a high-risk, low-reward approach to fading the Cleveland Browns after they traded Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday.
Polymarket Sports confirmed that one user purchased $200,000 in contracts predicting that the Browns would not win the Super Bowl in Feb. 2027. If they are correct, the trade would net $1,761 for a whopping 0.9 percent ROI.
Garrett traded to Rams
News of the Garrett trade dominated NFL headlines on Monday, which was a critical day in the league calendar. Players can have their cap hits spread across future seasons if they are traded or released on or after June 1, making that a target date for many teams considering offseason moves.
Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, broke the league’s single-season sack record with 23 last year. The first pick in the 2017 draft played all nine years of his pro career with the Browns, amassing 125.5 sacks, already tied for 20th all-time, five first-team All-Pro nominations, and seven Pro Bowls.
The Browns haven't come close to consistently competing with Garrett. They only managed two winning seasons during his time in the NFL in 2023 and 2020, and they are coming off a disappointing 5-12 campaign. Trading Garrett allowed them to maximize his value for a talented youngster, Jared Verse, and three draft picks, without sacrificing their winning potential.
If the Browns couldn’t win with the best defensive player in the sport, the $200,000 Polymarket trade is a sign that they aren’t expected to be any better without him.
Super Bowl prediction markets adjust
The Browns are one of 14 teams with a 1% chance in Polymarket’s Super Bowl prediction market. Their “Yes” contract price of $.01 is tied for the fourth-cheapest on the board, ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders.
Fellow prediction operator Kalshi views the market relatively similarly. The Browns are one of eight teams that are listed with less than a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
In a sad reflection of how bleak the Browns’ upcoming prospects are, their Super Bowl likelihood did not change at either platform in light of the Garrett trade.
The Rams, on the other hand, soared after the trade was announced Monday afternoon. Polymarket users jumped them from a 10% chance at noon Eastern to as high as 17%, eventually settling at a market-leading 16%. Kalshi also moved the Rams from 12% to as high as 17% and a current value of 16%.
Garrett dominated DPOY markets
Polymarket does not have a live prediction market for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year winner in the upcoming season. Kalshi, however, has already processed nearly $180,000 worth of contract purchases.
To no surprise, Garrett is the favorite to win the upcoming award with a 27% chance. He was stuck at an 11% chance and trailing Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. until the trade, which almost immediately spiked him to 23% before the market settled at 27%.
Anderson Jr. managed to climb to 14% amid the mayhem, leaving Aidan Hutchinson, Maxx Crosby, and Micah Parsons all trailing at 8%.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Garrett is coming off the most dominant season a pass-rusher has had in NFL history. He joins a Rams team that was already favored to win the Super Bowl and has the reigning MVP, Matthew Stafford, the best coach in the league, Sean McVay, a perennial Offensive Player of the Year candidate, Puka Nacua, and newly acquired shutdown corner, Trent McDuffie. The responsible move is usually to take the field, although Garrett is in the best situation of his career, and it’s tough to say another team is on the Rams’ level in terms of talent.