Polymarket traders won huge at Roland Garros — also known as the French Open — in what proved to be a very dramatic weekend.
A user known as stood above their peers, taking home an enormous $6.2 million profit from over $18 million in trades placed in Polymarket’s tennis prediction markets. The platform processed more than $42 million in total trading activity related to the outright winner of the competition.
A tournament of surprises
Roland Garros was a wild ride from the earliest rounds. World number one Jannik Sinner was shockingly eliminated in the second round by Argentine Juan Manuel Cerúndolo, who was given less than a 1% chance of winning the match. Sinner had gone up by two sets and led the third, 5-1, but ultimately collapsed as severe cramping limited his mobility on the court.
German Alexander Zverev eventually won the tournament, defeating Flavio Cobolli in the final, 6-1, 4-6, 6-4, 6-7 (5-7), 6-1. At 29, he became the seventh-oldest first-time major winner in the Open Era.
Zverev remains the third-ranked player in the world.
Roland Garros prediction markets pay huge
While the Roland Garros result may have shocked many in the tennis world, it was one of many successes for Polymarket’s “Inaccuratestake.” They won nearly $24.2 million from $18 million in contract purchases, with a large chunk of that coming from the final match.
Polymarket’s activity log shows that 19.3% of the user’s total profit was earned by correctly predicting that Zverev would defeat Cobolli in the final match. Nearly $5 million in purchases paid a smooth $6.2 million, marking a 23.9% ROI in just that market.
That $1.2 million profit was the largest single profit of the user’s French Open trading experience. Their highest ROI (192%) came from a match between Anastasia Potapova and Anna Kalinskaya, although that was the market in which they had the lowest purchase value ($1,007.78), resulting in $1,934.71 in profit.
The user reached seven figures in trades in five separate markets, which are listed below.
- ATP: Cobolli vs Zverev - $4,971,547.95 ($1,189,577.85 profit)
- WTA: Chwalinska vs Andreeva - $3,846,210.43 ($869,299.55 profit)
- ATP: Jodar vs Zverev - $2,634,578.76 ($707,082.06 profit)
- ATP: Mensik vs Zverev - $1,997,081.82 ($526,611.5 profit)
- ATP: Mensik vs Rublev - $1,146,232.80 ($1,096,787.66 profit)
More French Open prediction wins
Not to be left out of the success in French Open prediction markets, Polymarket user “brightshieldd” came out of the tournament with several lucrative wins of their own.
Their largest risk also came in the final, for which they staked $1.3 million on Zverev. The accurate prognostication resulted in a $280,048.55 profit.
Their largest payout came earlier in the tournament, when Francis Tiafoe fell to Matteo Arnaldi. The user was able to walk away with $1.9 million from $1.1 million in shares, translating to a $824,339.82 profit.
Polymarket’s log shows that they eventually finished with nearly $1.4 million more than they began with, producing a 37.32% ROI from $3.7 million in trades.
Dominating NBA Finals prediction markets
Polymarket user “Countryside” was the big winner of the week in the NBA Finals prediction markets, profiting over $1 million from $546,189.96 million in trades. That was down to them correctly calling New York Knicks upsets in Games 1 and 2, which netted $711,108.82 and $857,943.12 payouts, respectively.
The trader also has $100,900.43 on the Knicks winning the NBA Finals, purchased at $.133 per contract, and $57,513.71 worth of shares predicting the San Antonio Spurs will not win the NBA Finals, purchased at $.742 each.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction market whales have proven to be almost lethally accurate. There’s no shortage of marquee sports events in the near future, with the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, and World Cup all in session this week.