Prediction markets are offering an alternative to traditional gambling, with the surging industry allowing users to make trades on unique event contracts. Profiting from real world outcomes isn’t the only way these rising platforms are impacting people, however.
Kalshi and Polymarket have been dominating the prediction market scene for months, while Novig recently broke the internet with a risque Sydney Sweeney ad. These massive companies are changing the way people wager online, but they’re also rapidly becoming a medium for users to digest their news.
Prediction Markets Work Their Way into News Media
Top prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are taking over the betting world. Novig just showed us all what one ad can do to the internet. Collectively, these and other prediction market platforms are revolutionizing online betting, and they may be greatly influencing how the public accesses their news.
It’s not just by accident, either. Polymarket has specifically been intentional in its efforts to be more reputable and credible. A partnership with both Dow Jones and Substack shows that, giving the platform its own newsletter, social media content, and even a weekly podcast.
Polymarket has been one of the most active prediction markets on social media, with their X account routinely breaking news and hopping all over viral trends.
They’re not the only ones, as Kalshi has developed relationships with media juggernauts like CNN, Fox Corp, and CNBC.
Are Prediction Market Prices Becoming a New Metric?
Aside from these deals and the data being shared between all entities involved, the prediction market event contracts operate as a news source themselves.
Election outcomes, game odds, and any number of event contracts dealing with real world questions can give way to an accurate answer long before that data is officially revealed.
For instance, a market starting at 35% and moving up to 65% signals that a decision is very much leaning in one direction. It isn’t a fool proof concept, and it has a key poison pill attached to it, but pricing on prediction markets can establish and cement news before it even happens.
Prediction Markets Still Have a Trust Problem
The aforementioned “poison pill” is the reality that prediction market insider trading can happen, which can tear away at the trust between leading platforms and their user bases.
Concerns over market manipulation and misleading promotional content linger, and to this point it has been proven that no market is safe. Prediction market event contracts ranging from sporting events to political elections or even military decisions have all dealt with some level of infractions.
This can lead to increased scrutiny over how and why a market moves, while consumers may not always fully understand how much money is being moved or how liquid a given market is.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The end game for prediction markets is volume and attention. Kalshi and Polymarket are winning the race currently, as they have a bigger reach than most of their competitors and they’re all striving for global expansion.
Prediction markets continue to run into legal and regulatory issues, but the explosion of this industry and the accuracy of its markets continue to validate them as an increasingly reliable news source.
That doesn’t mean prediction markets will replace regular news media, but their reach and impact is already being felt. The path to cleaner packaging and regulation is being paved, which likely sets up the big prediction market sites to deliver major influence even for people who never complete a single trade.