As the midterm elections dominated national headlines, prediction markets are suddenly showing strong movement related to the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.
Incumbent and re-elected Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, 39, is a strong favorite to make the presidential ticket by the time the next presidential election rolls around. That comes on the heels of him dominating his Republican challenger, Mike Collins (R), in the midterms.
Ossoff to be next Democratic presidential nominee?
The focus leading up to election day on Tuesday almost entirely pertained to races in the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as nationwide gubernatorial showdowns.
Ossoff was one of numerous individuals who were up for, and won, election. But unlike many others, his victory immediately catapulted his chances of replacing President Donald Trump in the White House.
Ossoff had a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination at this time last week at Kalshi. He dropped as low as 13% on Tuesday morning, which put him just behind U.S. Rep. from New York Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
By 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Osoff had ballooned to 22%. He sits at 27% at the time of writing on Thursday.
Polymarket experienced similar developments. The Georgian Senator was at 16% one week ago and climbed as high as 29% before he settled at a current value of 27%.
Polymarket’s public tracker revealed a staggering $1.3 billion in notional trading volume for contracts exchanged in its democratic presidential nominee prediction markets. Kalshi tracked $270.9 million in its markets.
Building strong support
Ossoff is the Senate’s youngest member. He was elected for the first time in 2021.
While championing his re-election on Tuesday, he called out President Trump for his performance as the nation’s leader.
"Together, we’ve affirmed that our task is not just to contain one president’s wickedness, but to heal the brokenness beneath," Ossoff told a crowd of voters on Tuesday evening.
"The American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption and incompetence of the failed lame duck president Donald J. Trump."
Ossoff’s campaign for Senate ultimately brought in more than $100 million in donations, a strong amount that reflects his popularity with the wealthy and the powerful. That and his strong performance with voters have made him a popular name in discussions about the Democrat’s next challenger on the presidential ticket.
Many expected Newsom, who climbed as high as 37% at Kalshi and 39% at Polymarket, to be the man for the job. But Ossoff’s confidence to boldly lash out at Trump policies and actions has made him popular not only with his base, but traders of prediction markets targeting the democratic presidential nominee in 2028.
Ocasio-Cortez, considered a strong liberal who might struggle to attract middleground voters, had been floated as an alternative. Her probabilities peaked at 19% at Kalshi and 23% at Polymarket, meaning that she never garnered as much support as Ossoff is feeling after the midterms.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The national turnout in the midterms was reflective of Americans’ general desire to distance themselves from the first two years of President Trump’s second administration. That included not only electing Democrats, but gravitating towards younger candidates. Ossoff, only 39, represents a more youthful approach, and his performance at the polls was enough to cause him to surge in democratic presidential nominee prediction markets.