The Cleveland Cavaliers are now more likely than not to sign LeBron James for a third stint in his hometown, according to prediction markets.
Users at leading prediction operators Kalshi and Polymarket believe that James, an Akron, Ohio, native, has a 61% chance of returning to the team that drafted him. He played in Cleveland from 2003-10 and 2014-18.
LeBron to the Cavaliers?
Sports journalist and podcaster Bill Simmons went on record saying that James’s return to Cleveland was a done deal.
“This thing is done,” he said.
A legendary figure in Cleveland known as “Cupcake Lady” also said this week that James was returning to Cleveland, and his son, Bronny James, and former Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green were also signing.
“Cupcake Lady” posted online that James was returning to Cleveland a few days before his announcement in 2014. The owner, who had an inside source, beat league insiders to the punch and was one of the first to predict the return.
Through those and breadcrumbs and general rumblings, the smoke around James going back to his old stomping grounds has been building. And now, traders at prediction markets are hoping to cash in.
LeBron James next team prediction markets
Kalshi processed $87.2 million in prediction contracts related to which team James will play for next. The Cavaliers (61%) lead the board, and are followed by the Miami Heat (20%) and the Warriors (12%). The Philadelphia 76ers (7%), Minnesota Timberwolves (3%), and Denver Nuggets (2%) are the only other teams with probabilities exceeding 1%.
The Cavaliers were recently as low as 12.9% on June 29. At that time, the Warriors were the leaders at 40%, while the Heat only had a 5.5% likelihood of luring James in free agency for the second time in his career.
Polymarket’s board is very similar. After $16.5 million in trades, the Cavaliers (61%) lead all candidates, ahead of the Heat (18%), Warriors (13%), 76ers (7%), Timberwolves (2%), and the Nuggets (1%). The New York Knicks also have a 1% chance, while every other team is below 1%.
Connecting the dots
X (Twitter) user “HoodiGarland,” a Cavaliers fan, made a collage suggesting that James was already getting familiar with two of his new Cleveland teammates, Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus.
NBA reporter Marc Stein shared that the Cavaliers were going to keep two roster spots open for James and his son, Bronny, in case they wanted to play for Cleveland. Bronny’s contract with the Los Angeles Lakers became guaranteed last week, and the Cavaliers would have to bring over Bronny in a trade package.
The Cavaliers are over the salary cap and have to make several moves before they can James. One of those is to figure out the future of James Harden, who could likely receive more money elsewhere, but may take a pay cut to play with James.
Cleveland could also clear up cap space by trading either Strus or Dennis Schröder. Strus is likely the more valuable asset, although he would pair well with James. Schröder played 127 games across two years with James in 2021-21 and 2022-23.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
It always made sense that James would finish his career where it began. Although it’s in question whether Cleveland truly gives him the best chance to compete for a championship, the roster is well-built, and they would help themselves out if they could pull off a trade for Bronny. Prediction markets also show the public’s strong belief that James will go for one final ride through his old stomping grounds before he retires.