Spain on Tuesday joined a growing list of countries that blocked prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
The county’s ministry of consumer affairs initiated disciplinary action against the two operators, who have risen to popularity amid the widespread growth of prediction outlets. Internet service providers were ordered to revoke consumers’ access to web pages associated with the outlets.
Spain Bans “Unlicensed” Operators
According to information published in Spain’s state-sponsored gazette, the national gaming regulator, the Directorate General for Gambling Regulation, said that the platforms offered unlicensed betting services to consumers without receiving the necessary licensing. This was based on their event contracts, which are yes and no outcomes that customers may purchase and profit from if the acquired contract is proven correct.
National authorities said that the prohibitions placed on the platform would remain until the conclusion of the cases against Kalshi and Polymarket, which are estimated to be completed in three to four months.
“In Spain, in line with other European jurisdictions, prediction markets are considered gambling when bets are placed on uncertain future outcomes,” the ministry said. “Therefore, operating them in Spain requires obtaining a specific administrative licence.”
The ministry claimed that it attempted to inform the operators they needed to comply with national licensing requirements, including identity verification and restrictions for underage and self-excluded individuals. However, those attempts “proved unsuccessful.”
Prediction Platforms Face Global Pushback
The ongoing debate over top prediction operators in America has been well documented. Sports event contracts have proven to be the most divisive aspect of the platforms’ operations. State gaming officials argue that their federally-regulated status allows them to mask illegal gambling operations, while the platforms maintain they are compliant with their guidelines, which supersede state-level interference.
Elsewhere in the global market, Indonesia banned Polymarket after deeming it an illegal online gambling platform. Interestingly, it did not outlaw Kalshi. Brazil blocked access to 27 prediction outlets, including the two leading operators; France classified prediction platforms as unlicensed betting, although users are not fully blocked; and the UK instituted a regulatory ban on binary options trading outlets, effectively banning Kalshi and Polymarket, despite other outlets offering similar products.
Switzerland, Belgium, India, and Portugal fully locked access to prediction platforms, while New Zealand’s Department of Internal Affairs declared they were illegal under federal gambling laws.
Prediction Markets Surging in Activity
Kalshi and Polymarket might’ve only recently reached mainstream audiences, but they are responsible for an extraordinary amount of activity.
According to data from analytics platform DefiLlama, the platforms handled $9.7 billion in trades over the last 30 days. That included $5.9 billion from Kalshi and $3.8 billion from Polymarket, which represented a combined 87.6% of the entire trading volume from all operators during that period.
Market activity is only growing as time passes. Kalshi processed $235.5 million in trades over the last 24 hours alone, giving them a 30-day pace of $7.1 billion.
Back on American soil, the disputes over prediction markets are only heating up. The former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the federal body responsible for regulating licensed prediction outlets — from 2009-14 and 2021-25, Gary Gensler, said that sports event contracts were “sports betting.”
Current CFTC chair Michael Selig disagreed, saying that sports betting and predicting were “two separate things.” A new Kalshi-supported advocate group, Americans for Fair Markets, which will lobby on behalf of prediction operators, was also unveiled last week to support prediction operators in their quest to operate unabated nationwide.