Sports event contracts in prediction markets generated more than half a billion dollars in daily volume during the first week of FIFA World Cup matches.
According to analytics resource DeFi Rate, prediction platforms processed $565.1 million in trades in sports markets during the 24 hours that ended around 5:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. That included the majority of the day of the tournament debut of Lionel Messi and defending champion Argentina.
World Cup prediction market popularity
The World Cup is the most popular event in sports. The 2026 competition is projected to engage more than six billion people, or roughly three-fourths of the world’s population, according to Forbes.
Bernstein’s research analysts also estimated that as much as $10 billion could be traded in prediction contracts before the conclusion of the tournament.
The early returns support those projections. Although DeFi Rate’s $565.1 million figure was representative of all sports markets, the 10 most popular markets at Polymarket and Polymarket US were related to the World Cup. Seven of the top 10 sports markets at Kalshi involved World Cup matches.
World Cup prediction markets
The two most popular World Cup prediction markets during the previous 24-hour period were Polymarket’s outright World Cup winner, which totaled $90.8 million in trades, and the winner of Argentina and Algeria’s Group J match, which raked in $17.4 million in contract purchases.
Headlines were dominated by Messi’s performance in Argentina’s 3-0 win over its African opponent. Messi was responsible for all three goals and pushed his World Cup career scoring mark to 16 goals in 27 matches, tying Miroslav Klose’s all-time leading mark.
Messi's hat-trick pushed him back in front of France’s Kylian Mbappe, who reached 14 goals by scoring a brace against Senegal on Tuesday afternoon.
Argentina also climbed from a 9% chance of winning the World Cup at noon the day of the match to 10.5% at the time of writing on Wednesday morning. The reigning champs still trail France (18.5%), Spain (13%), and Portugal (11.8%), although they moved ahead of England (10.4%).e
Golden Boot probabilities
Mbappe is the leader in Golden Boot prediction markets, just as he was during the build-up to the tournament. However, Messi made up considerable ground on his former PSG teammate.
Messi only had a 5.9% chance of winning the Golden Boot at noon on Tuesday, according to Kalshi’s prediction market data. He’s up to a 25% chance currently.
Mbappe’s chances, meanwhile, have moved from 15% before the Senegal match to their current value of 27%.
Two other players have double-digit chances of winning the Golden Boot: Norway’s Erling Haaland (11%) and England’s Harry Kane (11%).
Haaland, making his World Cup debut in his country’s first appearance in the tournament since 1998, bagged a pair of goals in a 4-1 win against Iraq. He scored the second-most domestic goals in Europe this past season, with 27 for Manchester City.
Kane will take the field for the first time at the 2026 World Cup later today when England takes on Croatia. He led Europe with 36 league goals and won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup, although he only scored twice in five matches in the 2022 competition.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The dominance of the USA in its opening win against Paraguay, combined with the tournament being held in North America, should produce totals larger than the $565.1 million figure on days when the local team is in action. Additionally, the later rounds of the tournament typically bring more viewership and excitement, which should also generate even more interest in prediction markets.