The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the biggest sporting event in the world, and it has translated to prediction markets. Trades have been flowing at a rapid rate over the tournament.
Platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood's prediction market offering have experienced unprecedented growth since the tournament began, with combined monthly trading volume surpassing $50 billion.
That milestone signals just how quickly event trading has evolved from a niche product into a legitimate competitor to traditional sports betting.
Sportsbooks are Scared of Prediction Markets
Sportsbooks dominated the conversation whenever a major sporting event rolled around for years. The World Cup, Super Bowl, and March Madness have consistently generated billions in wagers through established betting operators, but this has seemed to take a turn.
Kalshi led the way during June, reporting roughly $31 billion in total trading volume, a jump of more than 70 percent from the previous month. According to company data, sports contracts represented approximately 85 percent of all activity, while World Cup markets alone generated more than $22 billion in volume.
Polymarket also posted record numbers. Its international exchange eclipsed $10 billion in monthly volume, while its regulated U.S. platform added another $3.5 billion as more traders entered the market throughout the opening weeks of the tournament.
Robinhood's recently launched prediction market platform also made an immediate impact, processing roughly $2 billion during its first month of operation, which is better than expected.
The growth is notable because it extends beyond experienced sports bettors. Since prediction markets allow you to trade on everything, including the weather, and politics, people are opening accounts who never bet on sportsbooks.
Instead of viewing prediction markets strictly as gambling platforms, many participants approached them as financial exchanges where contracts rise and fall based on new information, which separates them from predatory sportsbooks.
The Sell for Traders and Institutional Investors
Rather than betting against the house, users buy and sell contracts whose prices represent the market's estimated probability of an event occurring. As injuries, lineups, and match results unfold, those prices adjust almost instantly as traders react.
The World Cup created the ideal environment for that model. With 48 national teams, 104 matches, and nearly six weeks of continuous action, traders had opportunities to speculate on everything in a soccer match.
The goal for prediction markets is to also get institutions involved in their growth.
According to CoinDesk, professional trading firms have started dedicating resources specifically to prediction markets, treating event contracts more like financial derivatives than entertainment products. That represents another step toward legitimizing an industry that has expanded rapidly over the past two years.
Traditional sportsbooks are still expected to handle billions of dollars during the World Cup, but prediction markets have clearly narrowed the gap. Industry estimates suggest U.S. sportsbooks will process between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion in World Cup wagers, a figure that is dwarfed by the volume generated across leading prediction markets.
Whether this pace continues after the World Cup remains one of the biggest questions facing the industry.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Sports have become the primary trading method for prediction markets, but the platforms also offer contracts tied to politics, economic data, entertainment, and countless other real world events. This gives them an edge over sportsbooks.
The World Cup has brought traders to prediction markets, and all the other offerings should keep them around for the long haul.