Minnesota already did the hard part in this series. The Timberwolves walked into San Antonio, survived Victor Wembanyama’s monster defensive performance, and left with a 104-102 win in Game 1. Even after that, though, Timberwolves vs Spurs Prediction Markets still clearly believe the San Antonio are in control heading into Wednesday night.
That is probably the most interesting part of this matchup right now. The Timberwolves stole home court, Anthony Edwards looked healthy enough to make a real impact, and San Antonio’s stars struggled offensively. Somehow, the market still sees the Spurs as the Game 2 favorite.
TWolves vs. Spurs Game 2 Prediction Market Prices
Game 2 between Minnesota and San Antonio tips off Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN from Frost Bank Center.
Kalshi’s market has already generated more than $2.6 million in trading volume ahead of the game. San Antonio is currently priced around 78¢ to win, while Minnesota sits near 23¢ despite already being up 1-0 in the series.
The margin market is a little more cautious. San Antonio winning by more than 10.5 points is trading around 49¢, while the opposite side is sitting at 52¢. That suggests traders believe the Spurs bounce back, though not necessarily in a dominant fashion. The total points market for over 218.5 combined points is trading near 47¢, with the under side holding a slight edge around 54¢.
Prices taken from Kalshi at 2:30 p.m. ET
Wembanyama Controlled the Paint, But Minnesota Solved it Late in Game 1
Game 1 felt strange because Wembanyama was everywhere on defense, yet San Antonio still lost. Twelve blocked shots in a playoff game almost sounds fake, though somehow it still did not fully tilt the game toward the Spurs. Minnesota adjusted late by spreading the floor more aggressively.
Julius Randle and Naz Reid helped drag Wembanyama away from the basket, which opened up cleaner driving lanes and made San Antonio’s defense less intimidating in the fourth quarter. Chris Finch also made it pretty obvious afterward that Minnesota plans to keep attacking Wembanyama regardless of how many shots he blocks. The Timberwolves are basically betting that pressure and pace will eventually wear him down throughout the series.
Anthony Edwards Changes the Entire Feel of the Series
A huge part of this series shifted the moment Edwards stepped on the floor Monday night. There were real questions about how healthy he would look after the knee issue, and now it is still a concern for Game 2 after limited rest.
Edwards finished with 18 points in only 25 minutes and gave Minnesota a completely different level of confidence offensively. That matters because San Antonio already has enough problems dealing with Minnesota’s size and physicality. Once Edwards creates downhill pressure, as well, the matchup becomes much more difficult.
San Antonio Needs More From Fox
De’Aaron Fox did not hide from the criticism after Game 1. He flat-out said the loss was largely on him, and honestly, that felt accurate watching the game. Fox finished with 10 points and six turnovers, including several rough mistakes in the second half.
Minnesota turned a few of those directly into transition opportunities, which completely changed the momentum late. The Spurs probably can survive Wembanyama having an inefficient scoring night once in a while. They cannot survive sloppy guard play against a veteran team like Minnesota.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Game 2 Pick
From where we sit, Timberwolves vs Spurs prediction markets are still heavily pricing in San Antonio’s overall talent level and home-court advantage. That explains why the Spurs remain such a strong favorite despite already dropping Game 1. At the same time, Minnesota clearly found some things that worked. Pulling Wembanyama away from the rim changed the game late, and Edwards immediately looked capable of swinging stretches offensively even on limited minutes.
The biggest takeaway from Kalshi’s pricing might actually be the split between the outright market and the margin market. Traders still expect San Antonio to win more often than not, though they do not seem fully convinced the Spurs are about to run Minnesota off the floor either. That's why we like Minnesota to cover the margin in Game 2.