Top prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket reported nearly $650 million in trades related to the winner of the 2026 NBA Finals.
Saturday’s dramatic Game 7 in the Western Conference Finals finalized the final matchup of the season, which will see the New York Knicks take on the San Antonio Spurs. Both platforms believe the Spurs are champions in waiting, with prediction platforms set to pay huge sums, depending on the winner.
How much did you say?
According to trading data on the morning of June 1, Polymarket processed $406.4 million in trades in its NBA champion prediction market. $33.6 million of that was centered on the Spurs, and another $19.3 million on the Knicks.
The team that received the highest volume of trades was the Charlotte Hornets, who failed to advance out of the Play-In Tournament after they fell to the Orlando Magic. The team was named in $36.5 million worth of trades.
Kalshi’s website shows that its users made $242.1 million in trades in advance of the Finals. Insights are not available for individual outcomes, although the public trading log shows that 45 contracts worth at least $10,000 were purchased since April 30, the day the Spurs beat the Thunder and confirmed their first championship appearance since 2014.
Knicks vs. Spurs prediction markets
The Spurs and Knicks met in the Finals one time previously in 1999. The Spurs won their franchise’s first championship, while the underdog Knicks — who are still the only eight seed to ever reach the NBA’s grandest stage — lost in five games.
Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns paid homage to the ‘99 Knicks by wearing a t-shirt promoting the series to his first game after he was traded by the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2024, not knowing he too would line up across from the Spurs in the Finals.
Despite Towns’ unintended prognostication, Polymarket users are supporting the Spurs in the matchup. Market prices suggest they have a 64% chance to win the series, with “Yes” contracts available for $.642 and “No” contracts priced at $.359. Each winning contract would pay $1.
The Knicks have a 36% listed probability. “Yes” contracts can be purchased for $.358, while “No” outcomes cost $.643. Kalshi sees the matchup similarly, with the Spurs listed at a 64% probability to win the series. “Yes” and “No” contracts are available for $.64 and $.37, respectively. The Knicks have a 36% chance with mirrored contract values.
How have the markets changed?
The Knicks have made up considerable ground since the beginning of the playoffs. Polymarket only had them down for a 3% chance when they tipped off for the first time, but their excellent play and the surprising first-round elimination of the Boston Celtics had them up to 15% one month later.
A four-game sweep of the Cleveland Cavaliers and an all-time NBA playoff record for point differential in a 10-game stretch only sent them further into the good graces of traders, helping them to reach their current 36% likelihood.
The Spurs’ title path wasn’t as linear. Their likelihood fluctuated dramatically based on the results of individual games in their series with the Thunder, who were strong championship favorites. They were as low as 13.5% probability after their Game 5 loss that put them down 3-2 in the series, a deficit that less than 12 percent of teams in the same situation had recovered from across all of the league’s postseason history.
Kalshi experienced nearly identical ebbs and flows. Neither platform has seen a noteworthy change in probability over the last 24 hours.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The Spurs and Knicks both picked the perfect time to play their best ball of the year, creating what should be an epic series to finish the year. Market probabilities suggest that history will repeat itself, and the Spurs will win the Finals again — potentially even in five games, just like in 1999. Our money would be behind the Spurs, given the two-way dominance of Victor Wembanyama and their coming of age that just occurred in the Western Conference Finals.