Prediction markets have been busy again this week, with plenty to talk about beyond the midterm elections. Kalshi and Polymarket got to show off their election forecasts, Utah took its fight with Kalshi to a whole new level, and the WNBA started exploring possible prediction market partnerships.
We also saw some questionable trading activity on Polymarket and a growing number of exchanges offering promotions to bring in new customers. Here are five stories worth catching up on.
This Week's Top 5
1. Prediction Markets Take Center Stage During the Midterms
Election Day was a big one for prediction markets. Kalshi traders were giving Democrats a 93% chance of taking the House and a 71% chance of winning the Senate around midday Tuesday. Individual races also attracted millions of dollars in trading activity.
The Trade Handle Take: The markets got the overall direction right, but we're more interested in how they performed in the close races. That's where you can really start to judge the quality of their forecasts.
2. Could the WNBA Be Next for Kalshi and Polymarket?
The NBA recently reached agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, and the WNBA is now considering whether to follow suit. Nothing has been finalized, but the league has confirmed it's exploring opportunities. Player safety and input from the players' union could be important parts of those conversations.
The Trade Handle Take: It's easy to see why the WNBA would be interested, especially with the NBA already involved. Still, any deal needs to take the players' concerns seriously.
3. Prediction Market Promos Are Heating Up in November
Competition for new traders is getting pretty interesting. Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX, Novig, and OG.com are all advertising November promotions, with some offering as much as $75 in trading credits. Of course, the requirements and restrictions aren't the same across every platform.
The Trade Handle Take: Don't get too caught up in the biggest advertised number. A smaller promotion with simpler requirements might actually be more useful than one loaded with restrictions.
4. Utah Brings Felony Charges Against Kalshi's Founders
Utah's disagreement with Kalshi has become much more serious. Prosecutors filed 13 felony charges and one misdemeanor against the company and its co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. The case stems from an undercover investigation involving 12 sports contracts totaling roughly $115.
The Trade Handle Take: We've seen plenty of states challenge Kalshi, but bringing criminal charges against its founders is a major escalation. The allegations still need to be proven, and we'll be following this case closely.
5. Polymarket Trades Raise Questions After Ballon d'Or Results
Predicting the Ballon d'Or winner is one thing. Correctly identifying the top five finishers in order is something else entirely. Twelve Polymarket accounts reportedly traded more than $264,000 and collected nearly $200,000 in profits, prompting questions about possible insider information.
The Trade Handle Take: Nothing has been proven, but the trading patterns certainly deserve a closer look. The good news is that Polymarket's public transaction records make this kind of activity easier to investigate.
Opinion of the Week
Prediction Markets Got the Election Right. So What?
Prediction markets had a pretty good election night. Kalshi and Polymarket correctly favored Democrats to take both chambers of Congress, and one analysis found that market favorites won 479 of 487 resolved races. Sounds impressive, right? It is, but there's more to the story.
In this week's opinion piece, we look at why picking the winner isn't always the best measure of accuracy. Getting a race right when someone has a 99% chance of winning is very different from correctly pricing a close contest. We also dig into why missed races, changing probabilities, and comparisons with traditional polling deserve more attention.
Educational Article of the Week
Six Ways to Trade on Prediction Markets
If you're new to prediction markets, you might think trading is as simple as choosing Yes or No and waiting to see what happens. That's one way to do it, but it's certainly not the only one. Our latest guide covers six different approaches, from holding contracts until settlement to selling when prices move in your favor.
We also explain multi-outcome markets, combining contracts, and how prediction markets can be used to hedge against financial risks. It's a useful starting point if you're trying to understand what you can actually do on these platforms beyond predicting the outcome.
That's all for this week! There's no shortage of things happening across prediction markets right now, and we'll keep covering the stories that matter, whether it's a major court decision, a new partnership, or something interesting happening on an exchange.
Thanks for reading, make sure to check out all the latest prediction market news at TradeHandle.com and we'll see you next week.