The New York Knicks are on the verge of winning the NBA Finals with a 3-1 lead over the San Antonio Spurs, and it's showing on prediction markets like Kalshi. One of the most popular NBA Finals markets is MVP, which typically goes to a player on the winning team.
Jalen Brunson remains the rightful favorite, but OG Anunoby is gaining momentum. His MVP probability jumped from 3.6% to 32% on Kalshi after his game-winning tip-in in Game 4.
If the Knicks close out the series on Saturday, it should further boost Anunoby's chances of taking home the award, especially given Brunson's inconsistent shooting throughout the playoffs.
The Case for OG Anunoby
OG Anunoby is currently trading at 32 cents per contract on prediction markets like Kalshi, meaning a $10 trade would pay out $29.83. There appears to be more value on Anunoby than Brunson because the Knicks guard hasn't consistently looked like the best player in the series.
Brunson's probability is elevated because he's the team's star, but Anunoby has arguably been the most deserving player through four games. He cemented himself as a New York hero with his game-winning tip-in that completed the largest comeback in NBA Finals history.
The Knicks erased a 29-point deficit to beat the Spurs and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Anunoby did far more than score the final basket; he carried the team throughout the comeback.
He finished with 33 points while shooting 66.7% from the field. New York clawed its way back into the game largely because of his outstanding three-point shooting.
Anunoby's shooting had already been excellent throughout the series, but it reached another level in Game 4 as he connected on 77.8% of his three-point attempts. He shot more than 10 percentage points better from beyond the arc than he did overall, highlighting just how locked in he was down the stretch.
When you compare his numbers to the rest of the roster, there's a strong argument that Anunoby should be the frontrunner. The market may be undervaluing just how important he has been to New York's success.
He has shot better than 40% from three in every NBA Finals game and has scored 61 points across the last two contests. Considering he averaged just 16.7 points per game during the regular season, his 28 and 33-point performances have been well above his usual production.
Championship players elevate their games in the biggest moments, and that's exactly what Anunoby has done.
But What About Jalen Brunson?
Brunson was excellent in Game 4 and posted numbers comparable to Anunoby's. He scored 36 points and recorded his second 30-plus point performance of the series.
He also shot 48% from the field, making for another efficient outing. However, when looking at the series as a whole, Brunson hasn't been nearly as efficient.
He hit the game-clinching shot in Game 1 and the game-winning basket in Game 2, but he has also taken plenty of low-value shots. You could argue that Anunoby's tip-in was the biggest shot of the series because it prevented the Finals from becoming a best-of-three.
At halftime of Game 4, San Antonio was being traded as the favorite to win the NBA Finals on prediction markets, which shows just how significant Anunoby's play was in swinging the series.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction markets still favor Brunson to win NBA Finals MVP, but it would only take one more standout performance from Anunoby for those odds to shift. He put himself firmly in the conversation with his Game 4 heroics, and a signature performance in Game 5 could be enough to make him the favorite.