U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening campaigned for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to retain sole authority over regulating licensed prediction platforms. “It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they thrive,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Under my leadership, we are setting ‘rules of the road’ that are the Gold Standard for the States.”
Trump wants CFTC protection
The CFTC is a federal body that oversees prediction market activity in America. They review contract markets, pursue legal enforcement in necessary circumstances, such as those involving insider trading, and protect operators from interference at lower levels. Prediction operators have drawn the ire of many state regulators for their contract offerings, which allow users to trade binary contracts in markets ranging from the future Super Bowl winner to the number of music streams that Justin Bieber will produce next week.
State gaming officials have argued to varying degrees of success that these markets, specifically sports event contracts, allow prediction operators to act as unlicensed and illegal sports betting outfits. Trump — in his typical unfiltered vernacular — accused several politicians of getting in the CFTC’s way amid the rising pushback from local regulators.
“We cannot have SCUM like (former New Jersey Gov.) Chris Christie, (New York Atty. Gen.) Letitia James, (Minnesota Gov.) Tim Walz, and (Illinois Gov.) JB Pritzker setting the rules!” he wrote on Truth Social. “It is a major industry, and we must protect it. Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you Mike!”
Christie has supported the American Gaming Association in championing the local regulation of prediction markets; James led New York in suing Coinbase and Gemini earlier this year over their prediction market platforms; Illinois, under Pritzker, sent cease-and-desist orders to several prediction operators, prompting a retaliatory lawsuit from the CFTC in April; and Walz earlier this month signed a bill into law that made Minnesota the first state to explicitly ban prediction markets.
Support from the top level
Prediction outlets have repeatedly cited their federally-regulated status in response to questions or challenges over their right to operate without state approval. Selig also recently described prediction outlets and legal sportsbooks as “two separate things.” “They're different models,” he said in an interview earlier this month. “The conventional sportsbooks and casinos are entertainment, and they have a lot of authority to be able to kick people out when they keep winning.
“When you go to the derivatives markets, that's now allowed. You keep winning? Great. You take your earnings.” Trump nominated Selig to serve as the CFTC chair in Oct. 2025. He was sworn in two months later. Selig is the only active member of the CFTC, which normally has five bipartisan commissioners and one chairman.
A change of opinion
Trump has familial ties to the prediction industry. His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., was appointed as a “strategic advisor” to prediction leader Kalshi last January. He’s also an advisor and investor in Polymarket, Kalshi’s top challenger, through venture firm 1789 Capital, where he is a partner. Trump Media & Technology Group also previously announced plans to offer prediction markets for consumers.
The President’s position on the prediction industry is a sharp deviation from the opinion he expressed just one month ago. “You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump said when asked about traders making money in events related to the Iran war. “I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is now. “I think that I’m not happy with any of that stuff, but they have all these different sites of predictive markets. It’s a crazy world. It’s a much different world than it was.”