My Underdog prediction markets review will reveal everything you need to know about Underdog Predict. This is the brand's new prediction markets product which it is currently offering alongside daily fantasy sports on the existing app.
I’ll start by explaining what prediction markets are, before I take a close look at Underdog’s relationship with Crypto.com and this new way to engage with your favourite sports. As Underdog Predict can only be accessed via the Underdog app, I’ll walk you through the process and tell you what you can expect to find once you’ve signed up.
What does trading on prediction markets involve?
Prediction markets are a form of trading where you can buy and sell small contracts based on the outcome of an event. They cover multiple topics including politics, economics, weather, and sports events.
As I explained in my full DraftKings review, over recent months, several well-known sportsbook and DFS brands have opted to make prediction markets available on their platforms by collaborating with CFTC-regulated trading exchanges. In turn this enables them to offer this form of trading alongside their existing products.
Underdog has opted to collaborate with Crypto.com
Underdog has added trading on event contracts to its existing DFS offering thanks to a partnership with CDNA (Crypto.com Derivatives North America) which is a CFTC-regulated exchange.
You don’t need to know the exact ins and outs of this arrangement, but in essence, Crypto.com is responsible for providing the trading contract infrastructure, while Underdog is responsible for how the product, Underdog Predict, is presented on its existing app.
Disclaimer: Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. For more information visit: https://www.nadex.com/rules and https://underdogfantasy.com/rules. For Crypto.com Predictions, the term "pick" refers to a product traded on CDNA.
Signing up at Underdog
Although you will find plenty of helpful information about Underdog Predict on the brand’s website, you can only trade prediction market contracts via the Underdog app. Naturally, I’d recommend exploring the website initially, in order to gain an understanding. More on that later in my review.
When you feel ready to sign up with Underdog and get started, you’ll be pleased to know that the process is very straightforward. But to help you along your way, I’ve detailed the steps you need to take.
Is there a sign up bonus available for Underdog Predict?
Underdog has opted to focus on keeping contract fees as low as possible for those who wish to trade in prediction markets. Therefore, there is no welcome bonus on offer for Underdog Predict, and there are no ongoing promotions currently.
However, as Underdog Predict shares the existing Underdog Fantasy app, you can claim the DFS welcome offer if you wish. In order to do so you will need to deposit at least $10, then enter $5 worth of daily fantasy sports contests. In return, you will receive $75 of free DFS entries.
This might suit you if you have an interest in making DFS picks, but if you have signed up just to access Underdog Predict, there is no obligation to accept the Underdog Fantasy bonus, or to enter DFS contests at any stage.
Conversely, if you do decide to claim the DFS bonus, it cannot be used for prediction markets. I mention this, as there has been some confusion about how this works.
Disclaimer: Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. For more information visit: https://www.nadex.com/rules and https://underdogfantasy.com/rules. For Crypto.com Predictions, the term "pick" refers to a product traded on CDNA.
The Underdog website
As I mentioned earlier, although you can only enter DFS contests, or trade on prediction markets via the Underdog app, the Underdog website contains a wealth of information about the latter. In this section of my Underdog prediction markets review, I’ll walk you through the most important parts.
Prediction Picks Rules
The ‘Prediction Picks Rules’ page is the first document you will encounter, and it contains information related to the legalities of Underdog Predict, covering topics like the brand’s relationship with Crypto.com, information relating to the minimum age requirement, and availability of the Predict product.
In addition, there are links here to more in-depth legal documents, the main Underdog terms and conditions, information about responsible gambling, with contact telephone numbers, and a disclaimer, similar to the one I included earlier, which explains the risks attached to trading.
The Underdog Help Center
There is a section of the Underdog Help Center dedicated to Underdog Predict, which contains 23 in-depth articles under five headings: Getting Started, Trading & Markets, Sports Specific Rules, Accounts, Funds & Taxes, and Settlement & Disputes.
As you’ll appreciate, that represents a huge amount of reading material, but as it’s broken down further, it’s more than possible to pick and choose depending on your prior level of knowledge about trading prediction market contracts.
Using the Underdog app for prediction markets
As I’ve already explained, Underdog Predict shares the same app as the brand’s Fantasy product. However, access varies according to which product you are using. I won’t go into details about DFS access, I’ll stick to discussing Underdog Predict.
Underdog prediction markets are currently available in 32 US states, with the following 18 states being excluded currently: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.
You will need to be at least 18 years old to use Underdog Predict in most states, however, the age requirement in Virginia is 21 years or above. In addition, you will only be able to buy and sell contracts when you are physically located in an eligible state. As Underdog uses geolocation software you will need to change your device settings to enable access to your location.
Customer support options for Underdog Predict
Now seems like a good time to tell you about customer support. I’ve already discussed the impressive level of self-help information you’ll find in the Underdog Predict section within the Help Center, so this part is more concerned with the ways you can contact Underdog directly.
If you have questions before you sign up with Underdog, you can only contact the brand via email. You will find the correct email address by using the ‘Contact Support’ tab at the top of the Help Center homepage. Unfortunately responses to queries via email may take up to 2 business days to get answered.
For those who have already registered an account, provided you are logged in, you will be able to contact Underdog via live chat, either from the main website, or via the app. For either, you will find the chat icon (depicted as the brand’s logo) at the bottom right of your screen. Responses are very quick, but that’s because you will initially get connected to a chatbot called “Finn”.
Finn claims to be able to resolve 80% of queries, but I would dispute that point. I gave the bot two chances to answer my question about Underdog Predict fees, with no joy, after which I ‘insisted’ on speaking to a human agent, who answered my question promptly and efficiently.
Making deposits and withdrawals at Underdog
Although this would usually be a straightforward topic to cover, in this instance, it’s not. The reason for that is because the available payment methods vary between Underdog Fantasy, and Underdog Predict, despite both products sharing the same app.
For Underdog Predict, you can only choose from these options:
- Debit and credit cards
- Apple Pay
- Trustly bank transfer
However, for Underdog Fantasy, you can also use PayPal, Cash App, and Venmo. Based on that information, if you plan to claim the Underdog Fantasy sign up bonus, but also plan to use Underdog Predict, you are best sticking to the three payment options listed for the latter.
What is a prediction market contract?
For all categories of prediction markets, each contract has a value of $1 representing 100%, which is split between two possible outcomes, also defined as percentages, which in turn reflect the implied probability of each outcome. Depending on your opinion you ‘Buy’ a contract at the current price.
It’s important to remember that the price isn’t fixed. Ahead of the event, as more contracts are purchased, the value of your contract will vary according to the opinions of others. This underlines the risk factor involved, because the contract value can just as easily go down, as up.
You will also have the option to ‘Sell’ your contract before the event takes place. If the price rises, you may wish to sell to secure a small profit. But another time to consider selling is when the contract begins to dip below the original purchase cost in order to minimize your losses. I will provide specific examples of some prediction markets contracts, and possible outcomes to make all of this more clear.
An in-depth look at the Underdog sports prediction market categories
Just as I found during my FanDuel review, Underdog offers a number of different prediction market categories. Although the bulk of the Underdog’s prediction contracts are sports-related, you can also trade contracts for events related to politics, culture, cryptocurrencies, and economics too.
Underdog sports prediction markets
In terms of the Underdog Predict sports categories, there are two options: Team Picks and Player Picks. For both you will find event contracts concerned with the following sports:
- NFL
- NBA
- NHL
- MLB
- CFB
- Soccer
- Tennis
The brand has also mentioned that it plans to add more sports to this list in the future, so even if your favored sport isn’t featured currently, it may well be soon.
Team Picks
Team Picks are straightforward ‘binary’ event contracts, with ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ options. The term ‘binary’ reflects the fact that there are only two possible outcomes, and the payout you receive is either $1 (less 2% fees) or zero. To explain how this works, I’ll use a real life example.
In an upcoming NHL clash between the Los Angeles Kings, and the Vancouver Canucks the following question is posed:
’Will the Los Angeles Kings beat the Vancouver Canucks?’
The LA Kings are the hot favorites to win this match, so the prediction market contract reflects that sentiment with implied probabilities shown as ‘Yes’ 62% and ‘No’ 38%. In turn, this indicates that 62% of users believe the Kings will win the match.
If you concur, you can buy a ‘Yes’ contract for $0.62, but if you feel the Canucks could potentially cause an upset, then the opposing ‘No’ contract would cost $0.38.
Depending on the outcome of the game, your payout would be $1, less 2% fees, if you predict correctly. The maximum payout is always $1 before fees are deducted, and your profit for this contract would be $0.36.
Of course, my example is based on the contract at a given moment in time. In reality, the implied probabilities can change in either direction, which can easily result in a loss.
Player Picks
Player Picks can be described as ‘scalar contracts’ because the options extend to player-specific statistics that are not related to the outcome of the match. Returning to my LA Kings vs Canucks example you might select Kings Center, Scott Laughton, and predict his performance using some, or all, of these statistics:
- Anytime goal
- Total points
- Shots on goal
- Assists
- Time on ice
- Penalties
The Player Picks option allows you to add multiple selections in one place, but it’s more for convenience than anything. Ultimately, each of your selections represents an individual $1 contract, and any payout will reflect the number of correct predictions you made.
What you’ll find in other Underdog prediction markets categories
The majority of prediction market contracts are based on sports events, around 75% in fact. But that doesn’t diminish the fact that there are other options. Below is a quick overview of what you might expect to see for each category.
Other factors affecting Underdog prediction markets
There are two other factors that will apply either to individual contracts, or to Underdog prediction markets as a whole. Both of which I felt were worthy of mentioning separately.
Limits
In order to make things less complicated, I have chosen to refer to individual contracts during my Underdog Predict review, but in reality you will most likely buy more than one. Underdog does not provide overall limits for the number of prediction market contracts you can buy.
Instead, a limit will be applied individually for each event, which is defined by a maximum $ amount. This does not mean the value of a single contract increases, it refers to the maximum number of $1 contracts you can purchase.
Fees
Until a short while ago, Underdog did not provide a specific fee structure, and the fees applied per Underdog Predict contract tended to vary. A few months in, the brand has now settled on a standard $0.02 fee per contract. However, as these things can change without notice, it’s worth checking this before you sign up.
Most Underdog prediction market contracts are binary, and you’ll find any fees due will be deducted ahead of any payout due to you. You won’t incur any fees for a losing contract. However, it is worth noting that Underdog’s terms and conditions state that for some more complex multiplier predictions, fees are calculated and deducted at the time you purchase the contract, rather than after the event.
Underdog Predict provides a comprehensive selection of prediction markets
Throughout my Underdog prediction markets review I have endeavored to provide you with accurate information about Underdog Predict. However, it is important to understand that trading on prediction markets in the US is still evolving, and the legalities surrounding it may change at any time.
As things stand, you can sign up and access Underdog Predict from 32 US states, and enjoy trading contracts for a variety of events relating to sports, politics, culture, cryptocurrencies, and economics. I found Underdog Predict an interesting product to use, and if you wish to explore its possibilities for yourself, you can use the link provided on the banners of this page to get started.